Strategy Research | Gold, the U.S. Dollar, and Crude Oil: A Wealth Allocation Framework and Strategy for Middle- to High-Net-Worth Households (Part I)

1. The Petrodollar System (established in 1974): Major global commodities are priced in U.S. dollars, requiring countries to hold dollars for settlement; 2. Military backing and alliance systems: Global deployment of U.S. military forces provides the 'ultimate guarantee' for the dollar’s credibility; 3. Liquidity monopoly of the global U.S. Treasury market: U.S. Treasuries constitute the world’s largest risk-free asset market. However, all three pillars have eroded during the 2020s: ・ Petrodollars: Saudi Arabia has begun accepting RMB and euros for partial oil trade settlements; multiple oil-producing nations have joined the BRICS framework. ・ Military credibility: The Ukraine war has exposed internal divisions within NATO; the cost of sustaining U.S. military presence worldwide continues to rise. ・ Treasury creditworthiness: Interest payments on U.S. debt now exceed defense spending; Moody’s and Fitch have both downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating. 3.2 Structural Interpretation of the U.S. Dollar Index: Has the era of a structurally weak dollar truly arrived? Distinguishing between 'cyclical dollar weakness' and 'structural dollar decline' is critical—each carries vastly different policy implications and portfolio responses. Our assessment is that we are currently experiencing a confluence of both cyclical and structural weakness—but structural factors are increasingly dominant. 3.3 The Fed’s Policy Dilemma: Dual Constraints from Interest Rates and Debt Understanding the dollar’s current predicament requires grasping the Federal Reserve’s 'dual-binding dilemma': 【Dollar · Policy Dilemma Assessment】 The Fed has effectively entered a 'no-good-options' bind: each of its three available paths undermines dollar credibility to some degree. This is precisely the underlying monetary-policy logic driving gold’s bull run—namely, the dollar cannot credibly strengthen, while gold serves as its most direct counter-asset. 3.4 Reassessing Dollar-Denominated Assets: Which to retain—and which to rebalance? 3.5 The RMB and a Multipolar Currency Order De-dollarization does not imply full RMB substitution for the dollar, but rather a multipolar evolution: the euro, RMB, gold, and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) collectively assume functions once monopolized by the dollar. ・ RMB limitations: The capital account remains incompletely open; the availability of RMB-denominated assets (e.g., international bonds, equities) is still constrained; ・ RMB advantages: China’s economic scale, trade settlement volume, and deep resource-country linkages (e.g., oil-for-RMB mechanisms); ・ Implications for high-net-worth families: Holding a portion of RMB-denominated assets (e.g., domestic real estate, A-shares, onshore bonds) as part of a diversified portfolio is rational; ・ Hong Kong’s unique status: As both an offshore RMB center and an integral component of the dollar ecosystem, it serves as the optimal interface between the two currency systems. Chapter IV The Third Mirror: Crude Oil —The Complex Geopolitical Energy Chessboard Oil: The Geopolitical Energy Game WTI Crude Price (April 2026): ~$58/barrel, down ~38% from the 2024 peak of ~$93/barrel; OPEC+ Production Cut Agreement: Voluntary cuts announced in 2024 were extended, though their impact was partially offset by increased U.S. shale output; Global EV Penetration Rate: In 2025, EVs accounted for ~26% of global new vehicle sales, exceeding 50% in China. 4.1 The Threefold Logic of Crude Oil

Investment Bank Perspective | Canadian Oil Extraction · Single-Well Financial Statements: The 'Non-Public Wealth Knowledge' Hidden Within the Energy Sector

* Single-well cash flow model * Single-well capital recovery model * Single-well lifecycle return model * Underlying securitization model for energy assets Within North America’s energy system, mature upstream investment logic has never been about 'trading oil prices'—but rather: Systematically acquiring, operating, optimizing, and scaling cash-flow-generating oil wells using engineering-driven methodologies. That is why: A large number of global energy funds, family offices, pension funds, and infrastructure funds maintain long-term allocations to mature oil & gas assets in regions such as Canada’s Alberta province and Texas. What they value is not short-term oil price volatility—but rather: The long-term cash-generating capacity of energy assets. I. What Is a 'Single-Well Financial Statement'? Essentially, a single-well financial statement is: A complete operational report covering production, sales, taxes, operating costs, and net cash proceeds generated by one oil well. Core line items in a well’s financial statement: Well ID, development cost, initial production rate, production calculation, sale price, revenue, production tax, operating cost, net cash flow, capital recovery, etc. Well financial data (single-well cash flow model) Few asset classes in traditional industries simultaneously possess: * Genuine, inelastic demand (energy); * Quantifiable output (barrels per day); * Transparent pricing (WTI-linked); * Stable cash flows (weekly or monthly payouts). Oil extraction—especially from mature, producing wells—is among the rare asset classes satisfying all four criteria. And the key to understanding its investment value lies not in macro narratives—but in the financial statement itself. Its fundamental distinction from conventional corporate financial statements is: Ordinary companies sell products; An oil well sells the ongoing monetization capability of subsurface resources. Thus: A mature oil well is, in essence, a 'micro cash-flow company.' II. Why Is the 'Well Financial Statement' Considered 'Non-Public Wealth Knowledge'? Because in most industries, profits stem from competition; Whereas in the energy sector, profits often derive from: * Resource control rights * Subsurface reserves * Drilling and extraction licenses * Block-level assets * Pipeline networks * Energy infrastructure In other words: Internet industry moats lie in traffic; Energy industry moats lie in 'resource property rights.' Therefore: A well’s financial statement directly reflects the cash flow generated by resource assets. That is also why: A significant portion of genuinely high-net-worth capital maintains long-term holdings in oil & gas assets. Because such assets inherently offer: * Inflation-hedging properties * Hedge against the U.S. dollar cycle * Geopolitical risk premium * Long-duration cash flows * Collateralizable financing capacity * Securitization potential III. How to Interpret a Well Financial Statement? For instance, the financial statements of these two conventional light-oil wells in Alberta, Canada, are already highly representative. The two wells are: * Well ID: 0163386 * Well ID: 0249029 Both belong to mature light-oil blocks in Canada. IV. The Six Core Metrics in a Well Financial Statement Within investment banks’ and energy funds’ real-world analytical frameworks, a 'single-well financial statement' is never treated merely as a production report—it is deconstructed into six core analytical modules, corresponding fundamentally to three questions: How much is earned? How quickly is capital recovered? And is the cash flow sustainable? Production This is the most fundamental metric for any oil well. For example: Well 0249029: * Initial weekly production: ~483 barrels

Wealth Research Firm: High-Net-Worth Individuals Favor Oil and Gas Assets

11 hours ago

Altrata's report indicates high-net-worth investors are shifting capital toward oil and gas infrastructure and equity, driven by geopolitical tensions and AI-related energy demand growth.

ccin

2026-09-22

Wealth Research Firm: High-Net-Worth Individuals Favor Oil and Gas Assets

Wealth Research Firm: High-Net-Worth Individuals Favor Oil and Gas Assets

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