How to forecast a listed company’s performance using financial statements?

A typical example is Tonghuashun (300033). Tonghuashun provides investment-related information services—including Level-2 market data, Short-Term Treasure, and Wealth Pioneer—to investors. These services are billed annually. If a customer purchases a full-year subscription in mid-year—say, in June—the entire payment is initially recorded as “advance receipts” on the balance sheet and then recognized as revenue monthly over the subscription period. Thus, for companies operating under this model, larger advance receipts generally indicate higher future operating revenue and profits. Conversely, a sudden decline in advance receipts signals potential downward pressure on future revenue and profit. Above: Tonghuashun’s advance receipts as of end-2019. Aside from firms like Tonghuashun, premium baijiu producers and real estate developers also commonly operate under an advance-receipts model. Take Wuliangye (000858) as an example: its flagship product, “Wuliangye baijiu,” is a quintessential representative of China’s strong-aroma baijiu category. Leveraging its unique production processes, the company has developed a diversified portfolio—including Wuliangchun, Wuliangchun, Wuliangte Qu, and Mianrou Jianzhuang—to meet varied consumer demands across different tiers. Wuliangye primarily adopts a distributor-based sales model, requiring distributors to pay in advance before shipment. Consequently, its balance sheet typically shows substantial advance receipts. Although Wuliangye’s 2012 revenue and net profit still grew year-on-year, its advance receipts at end-2012 dropped sharply compared to end-2011—foreshadowing adverse developments either within the company or its broader industry. Investors only became aware of the deteriorating performance in 2013; the financial statements had already sounded the alarm a full year earlier. 2. Inventory Inventory is a broad concept encompassing raw materials, work-in-process, semi-finished goods, finished goods, and goods dispatched but not yet recognized as revenue. For manufacturing and trading-listed companies, inventory levels are critically important: changes in ending inventory often signal upcoming shifts in operational performance. Here, we focus specifically on inventory increases, which fall into two categories: “active” and “passive.” Active inventory buildup usually reflects management’s anticipation of robust future demand and proactive procurement or production. Passive inventory accumulation, by contrast, often stems from deteriorating business conditions or worsening market environments—leading to sluggish product sales. Take Luxshare Precision (002475) as an example. Luxshare initially entered the capital markets via IPO based on its computer cable business. In 2011, after acquiring Kunshan Liantao, it became an Apple supplier, providing internal cables and power cords for iPhones. At end-2017, Luxshare’s inventory surged significantly—particularly raw materials and work-in-process, both nearly doubling. In a rapidly growing industry, such a sharp rise in inventory—especially raw materials—often signals large incoming orders. Indeed, securities research reports confirmed that Luxshare had begun assembling Apple’s AirPods wireless earbuds. Subsequently, Luxshare’s financial performance exploded. Above: Luxshare Precision’s inventory position as of end-2017. However, if a listed company operates in a non–high-growth sector—and its products have limited shelf lives (e.g., apparel or food companies)—then rising inventory—especially finished goods—is a red flag warranting close attention. Consider Metersbonwe Fashion (002269), better known as “Metersbonwe.” In 2017, its inventory turnover ratio declined, while its ending finished goods inventory ballooned—from RMB 1.8 billion to RMB 2.5 billion—indicating clear signs of product obsolescence and sluggish sales.

The Q3 performance reports of 50 global chemical enterprises are here—how did they fare?

Rongsheng Petrochemical: In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 129.357 billion, up 66.66% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed company amounted to RMB 10.122 billion, up 79.08% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, operating revenue totaled approximately RMB 44.941 billion, up 64.42% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed company reached approximately RMB 3.555 billion, up 45.47% year-on-year. Oriental Energy (Dongfang Shenghong): In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 25.077 billion, up 60.28% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed company amounted to RMB 1.431 billion, up 506.65% year-on-year. In Q3, main business revenue totaled RMB 9.386 billion, up 52.36% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed company stood at RMB 283 million, up 63.94% year-on-year. Zhongtai Chemical: In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 42.239 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed company of RMB 2.464 billion—a 645.16% increase year-on-year on a restated basis. In Q3, operating revenue totaled RMB 11.523 billion and net profit reached RMB 731 million—a 514.48% increase year-on-year on a restated basis. SABIC (Saudi Basic Industries Corporation): In Q3 2021, SABIC reported revenue of SAR 43.7 billion (approx. USD 11.65 billion), up 3% year-on-year; operating profit was SAR 7.7 billion, and net profit stood at SAR 5.59 billion. Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings: For the first half of fiscal year 2021 (April–September), the company reported sales revenue of JPY 1.885095 trillion (approx. USD 16.6 billion), versus JPY 1.504816 trillion in the prior-year period. Operating profit totaled JPY 153.137 billion, compared to an operating loss of JPY 39.924 billion in the prior-year period. Net profit attributable to owners of parent amounted to JPY 85.166 billion, versus a net loss of JPY 49.687 billion in the prior-year period. Sumitomo Chemical: For the first half of fiscal year 2021 (April–September), the company reported sales revenue of JPY 1.32521 trillion (approx. USD 11.84 billion), versus JPY 1.046771 trillion in the prior-year period. Operating profit totaled JPY 144.272 billion, versus JPY 50.188 billion in the prior-year period. Net profit attributable to owners of parent amounted to JPY 88.884 billion, versus a net loss of JPY 2.244 billion in the prior-year period. Asahi Kasei: For the first half of fiscal year 2021 (April–September), the company reported net sales of JPY 1.181049 trillion (approx. USD 10.4 billion), versus JPY 989.387 billion in the prior-year period. Operating profit totaled JPY 113.144 billion, versus JPY 76.769 billion in the prior-year period. Net profit attributable to owners of parent amounted to JPY 91.29 billion, versus JPY 46.781 billion in the prior-year period. Toray Industries, Japan: For the first half of fiscal year 2021 (April–September), the company reported revenue of JPY 1.062978 trillion (approx. USD 9.34 billion), versus JPY 856.069 billion in the prior-year period. Operating profit totaled JPY 68.962 billion, versus JPY 5.503 billion in the prior-year period.

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TradingView provides financial data and analyst estimates for Westlake Chemical Partners LP (NYSE: WLKP), enabling users to compare reported results against forecasts and visualize valuation trends across key financial statements.

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