Sudden positive news—the overseas market has hit a new high...

Hello everyone, I’m Hairong Jun. Just now, the lithium mining sector received some positive news: Albemarle, the U.S. lithium giant, surged 7.13% in pre-market trading, while Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) rose 7.52% pre-market. At current pre-market prices, Albemarle has already broken above its previous all-time high. The main reason? Around 5 p.m. today, Zimbabwe’s Minister of Mines suddenly announced an immediate suspension of all lithium exports. According to my research, Zimbabwe is Africa’s most critical lithium supplier. Based on 2026 production forecasts, it accounts for roughly 10% of global lithium supply. The lithium mining narrative remains less robust than those of gold or copper—global lithium supply is not fundamentally scarce. In the short term, however, supply-demand mismatches persist: domestic Chinese lithium producers’ new capacity is largely scheduled for commissioning after 2027, while near-term demand from energy storage and electric vehicles remains strong—pushing lithium inventories to historic lows. Zimbabwe’s abrupt export halt further tightens supply. The biggest beneficiaries are two companies operating at China’s Qarhan Salt Lake in Qinghai Province: first, their production costs are exceptionally low—around RMB 40,000 per ton—and second, as domestic miners, they face no disruption risks from overseas capacity cuts. Another lithium company based in Jiangxi holds RMB 9 billion in cash, with a market capitalization of approximately RMB 29 billion, virtually zero interest-bearing debt, and a mere 12% debt-to-asset ratio. Beyond lithium, it also operates a specialty steel business with long-standing top-three market share nationwide. A hidden lithium player jointly owns Blue Lithium Co., Ltd. with a Qinghai salt lake firm—and additionally runs construction materials operations across Africa. Other notable developments: 1. U.S. software stocks rose as AI startups developing financial tools began partnering with financial data provider FactSet. Even the most advanced AI lacks two essentials: (1) professional industry-specific data, and (2) deep domain expertise in interpreting and operationalizing such data—these constitute the enduring moats of established software firms. 2. AI-powered coding tools are intensifying competition: Alibaba is ramping up investment in programming tools, offering affordable access to several leading domestic AI models—including Qwen, Kimi, and Zhipu—at just RMB 7.9 for the first month, then RMB 40 monthly thereafter. 3. Shanghai has lifted property purchase restrictions: For homes inside the Outer Ring Road, buyers now need only one year of continuous social insurance or individual income tax payments (down from three years) to qualify for one unit; outside the Outer Ring, one year of contributions suffices regardless of how many units are purchased.

Key business and technology highlights this week

Core growth driver: Demand for memory chips—especially High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)—from AI servers is surging multi-fold. Micron Technology has already sold out its entire 2026 annual HBM production capacity. Industry restructuring: Global memory manufacturers are rapidly shifting production capacity toward higher-margin AI-optimized memory products, tightening supply of traditional memory chips and pushing the industry into an upward pricing cycle. Interpretation: Micron’s explosive earnings and soaring stock price reflect strong market optimism about AI infrastructure-driven demand for memory chips—particularly the immense growth potential of HBM—and the possible onset of a memory industry ‘super-cycle.’ Autonomous driving achieves a landmark breakthrough, with competitive landscape crystallizing: 1. China’s L3-level regulatory approval takes effect: Policy prioritizes limited-scenario deployment to kickstart commercialization. Event: China officially approved Changan and Arcfox L3 autonomous vehicles for road operation in designated sections of Beijing and Chongqing. 2. Waymo advances billion-dollar fundraising: Capital inflows accelerate large-scale deployment. Event: Waymo plans to raise over USD 15 billion, with its current valuation nearing USD 10 billion, while simultaneously expanding its service cities. 3. Tesla tests fully driverless vehicles: Technological leap propels stock to record highs. Event: Tesla launched unstaffed Robotaxi road testing in Austin—its share price surged to a new all-time high immediately following the announcement. Xiao Ma Zhixing’s Wang Haojun: Robotaxi enters the scaling phase—from “1 to 1,000” Wang Haojun, Co-Founder and CFO of Xiao Ma Zhixing (Pony.ai), stated that the autonomous driving industry has moved beyond initial technical validation and entered the deep waters of scaled expansion and commercial operations. The industry’s focus has shifted decisively—from “Can autonomous driving be achieved?” to “How can profitability and scale be realized?” Core breakthrough: The per-vehicle economic model has turned positive for the first time. A key signal is Xiao Ma Zhixing’s achievement of positive Unit Economics (UE) in Guangzhou’s single operational zone—meaning, excluding headquarters R&D expenses, revenue generated by each deployed Robotaxi now fully covers hardware depreciation, operations management, and all other associated costs, establishing a self-sustaining per-vehicle loop. Multiple automakers secure L3 testing or official licenses—China’s autonomous driving commercialization accelerates: On December 19, Xiaomi Auto announced it had obtained an L3 autonomous driving road test license in Beijing and continues conducting routine L3 road tests. On December 20, the Chongqing Municipal Public Security Bureau Traffic Management Corps officially issued the first L3 autonomous driving dedicated license plate—“Yu AD0001Z”—to Changan Automobile, marking Changan as the industry pioneer launching full-fledged L3 commercialization. Its Tian Shu intelligent system has officially entered practical application. Interpretation: The recent wave of L3-related milestones sends a clear core message: Regulatory authorities have formally opened the floodgates—China’s autonomous driving industry has transitioned comprehensively from technical testing to real-world commercial deployment. U.S.-China development paths diverge clearly: China centers its approach on policy guidance, steadily advancing commercialization within defined scenarios; the U.S. leverages technological leadership in vehicle-level intelligence and abundant capital to pursue aggressive, rapid expansion.

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