2026: A Banner Year for Non-Ferrous Metals!

The G7 continues printing money, triggering simultaneous inflation and currency depreciation. Every time the U.S. overissues dollars, it fires another bullet at the dollar-based monetary system. Currently, no currency can replace the dollar system—so ancient precious metals have become the best hedge against currency devaluation. Non-G7 central banks won’t sit idly by; thus, central banks worldwide are massively accumulating gold. China’s central bank gold reserves have risen from 62.64 million troy ounces in 2022 to 74.12 million troy ounces today. With gold prices soaring, central banks and institutions find gold increasingly expensive to hoard—so they naturally seek alternatives. That’s why we’ve seen sharp rallies in silver, platinum, and palladium. Rumors even surfaced that India and Russia reached an agreement allowing India to pay for crude oil with silver. CME silver futures surged from $45.51 to $82.67 in just two months—a staggering 156% annualized gain. NYMEX platinum futures jumped from $1,505.80 to a peak of $2,584.50 in only one month—an annualized gain of 144%. Gold’s annualized gain stands at 67%; gold rose first, and roughly six months later, silver, platinum, and palladium surged. Excessively high debt levels and monetary overexpansion are the primary catalysts behind the precious metals rally. Compounding this is the current supply crunch: globally, mines with known deposits remain untapped, and production capacity cannot keep up with demand. The precious metals shortage has arrived—how could prices not rise? Insufficient global mining capital expenditure: Over the past decade, major global miners have consistently underinvested in capex, resulting in severe lags in new capacity and markedly reduced supply elasticity. Environmental and geopolitical constraints: Increasingly stringent environmental regulations and complex geopolitical realities significantly restrict new mine exploration and development, lengthening project commissioning timelines. For example, South Africa’s Platreef PGM project—platinum mining is highly water- and energy-intensive, and associated sulfides risk generating acid mine drainage. Under local community pressure, its launch has been repeatedly delayed—from an original 2024 target to post-2027. Rising resource nationalism: Major resource-producing countries are tightening control over strategic minerals, heightening global supply-chain uncertainty. Mexico, for instance, nationalized lithium mining rights and tightened oversight of gold and silver operations, mandating stricter environmental compliance for all new projects. Tightening supply means prices are now dictated by suppliers. Having clarified the drivers behind the rally, let’s discuss how to benefit from this super-commodity cycle. Assets already heavily hyped—and whose prices have skyrocketed—are risky to chase. Buying high carries substantial downside risk; we exercise extreme caution toward momentum chasing.

Precious Metals Beyond Gold and Silver: Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) and Their Domestic Industrial Linkages

Beyond gold and silver, platinum group metals (PGMs)—namely platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, and osmium—deserve separate attention. Though classified as precious metals, their economic attributes differ markedly from gold’s: gold serves primarily as money and a reserve asset, whereas PGMs function first and foremost as scarce industrial raw materials, with investment appeal secondary. Consequently, their price dynamics cannot be simply extrapolated from interest-rate cuts, dollar strength, or central-bank gold-buying trends. Instead, one must closely monitor the automotive industry, chemical manufacturing, glass production, semiconductors, data centers, hydrogen energy, and supply conditions in South Africa and Russia. The PGM market in 2026 has already clearly bifurcated: Johnson Matthey forecasts persistent supply deficits for platinum, ruthenium, and iridium, while palladium and rhodium may shift into slight surplus. Platinum: Among PGMs, platinum most closely resembles a ‘tradable precious metal’ beyond gold and silver—and currently exhibits the clearest supply-demand fundamentals. It is used both in automotive catalytic converters and extensively across chemical processing, glassmaking, petroleum refining, jewelry, and hydrogen fuel cells/electrolysers. Platinum prices underwent a pronounced re-rating in 2025—but supply has not responded swiftly. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) still projects a 2026 full-year deficit of ~297,000 ounces—marking the fourth consecutive year of shortfall—with above-ground inventories expected to cover less than three months of global demand by year-end. Mine supply remains essentially flat, while industrial demand is forecast to grow 9%. This underscores platinum’s defining feature—not explosive demand growth, but an extremely inelastic supply curve. Most global platinum mines are concentrated in South Africa, where mine development cycles are long; even rising prices cannot rapidly boost output like ordinary industrial metals. Thus, platinum behaves more like a ‘supply-constrained industrial precious metal.’ Moreover, WPIC forecasts an average annual deficit of ~331,000 ounces between 2026 and 2030—indicating platinum’s medium-term fundamentals are notably stronger than palladium’s. Palladium: Palladium’s entire logic revolves almost exclusively around the automotive sector—specifically, gasoline-vehicle catalytic converters. This explains both its prior episodes of extreme pricing and subsequent sharp corrections. As electric vehicle (EV) penetration rises, battery-electric vehicles eliminate the need for traditional exhaust catalysts—posing a clear, long-term demand substitution threat to palladium. Johnson Matthey forecasts a ~9% decline in palladium demand in 2026, as gasoline-car production shrinks and high prices incentivize increased recycling from end-of-life vehicle catalysts—potentially shifting the market from chronic shortage to modest surplus. Yet palladium is not merely a declining-asset story. Hybrid electric vehicles still require catalysts, and substitution between platinum and palladium remains feasible; moreover, Russia is one of the world’s largest palladium suppliers—meaning sanctions, trade restrictions, and geopolitical tensions can readily trigger acute, short-term supply shocks. Nornickel still estimates global automotive palladium demand at ~7.4 million ounces in 2026—down only ~2% year-on-year—suggesting the phaseout of internal combustion engines and hybrids is progressing slower than early market expectations. Thus, palladium is best viewed as a cyclical metal facing structural demand headwinds over the long term, yet prone to sharp, short-term price swings driven by supply disruptions and substitution dynamics.

World’s Biggest Platinum Mine Nears Decision on Underground Move

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Valterra Platinum Ltd. is nearing a final investment decision to transition its flagship Mogalakwena mine underground to access high-grade reserves. The move aims to sustain production amid declining ore grades and evolving demand from automotive and technology sectors.

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World’s Biggest Platinum Mine Nears Decision on Underground Move

World’s Biggest Platinum Mine Nears Decision on Underground Move

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