How should we view the A-share market trend on October 14, 2026?

This seems even harder to implement—there are so many manufacturers, not just a handful; supervision poses a major challenge. Ultimately, domestic polysilicon production capacity currently stands at 3.5 million tons, with an operating rate of less than 40%. Meanwhile, global demand is only around 1.3 million tons—de-capacity efforts face a long and arduous road ahead. Hong Kong Anti-Fraud Measures: Yesterday, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) issued a notice taking action against a group suspected of IPO fraud and suspended trading of Cha Ba Dao. Also disclosed were details of the fraudulent scheme’s operational process, broadly comprising four steps. Step one: recruiting shills—mainly affiliated investors who subscribe to international placement shares to fabricate an illusion of strong demand. Step two: kickbacks—abnormally high underwriting commissions and other listing expenses are paid by the listed company to underwriters, who then funnel the funds back to the shills. Step three: fund recycling—this step is the main course, not merely an appetizer. Proceeds raised from the IPO are used to purchase so-called wealth management products; ultimately, these funds flow back into the hands of the masterminds behind the scheme. Thus, both money and shares are secured—essentially, a textbook case of ‘getting something for nothing.’ Step four: scalping retail investors—since equity is highly concentrated among a small number of individuals, the actual free-float market capitalization remains small, facilitating market manipulation; the fraudulently acquired shares are then sold at inflated prices to retail investors. This constitutes a classic example of ‘one fish, four meals’—repeated exploitation. Regarding the amount involved, previous cases totaled roughly HK$100–200 million; this time, however, the figure has surged to HK$4–5 billion. Hong Kong’s stock market has performed poorly in recent years, partly because IPO standards have been too lax, undermining the market’s overall credibility. The market has effectively become a ‘universal backup option’: many companies list there only after failing to secure listings elsewhere, reluctantly and resentfully. Hence, the SFC also plans to revise the “Listing Rules for Securities Markets” to strengthen market oversight. Copper Mine Strike: Escondida—the world’s largest copper mine, operated by BHP and located in northern Chile—is currently the only copper mine globally producing over one million metric tons of copper metal annually. Recently, amid rising copper prices, unions have demanded higher wages and threatened strike action. BHP’s latest offer includes a signing bonus of approximately USD 25,500 per worker. The union acknowledges that this bonus addresses some demands but contends it falls short of market levels, insisting instead on profit-sharing during periods of extraordinary copper price gains—in plain terms, linking worker income directly to corporate profits. Today marks the final day of negotiations; failure to reach agreement could trigger a strike, disrupting copper supply. Long-term copper demand remains robust, while long-term supply is tight—ore grades continue declining. Some investment banks (e.g., BMI) project a long-term target price of USD 17,000 per ton by 2035.

20260923, everyone’s already gone on holiday early.

Pancake Notes – Daily Update: 1) On September 22 local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with U.S. Presidential Envoy Robert C. O’Brien during the 81st United Nations General Assembly session in New York. According to Iranian sources, the meeting was initiated ‘at the U.S. side’s request,’ and Iran agreed to the meeting to convey its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. During the talks, Iran reaffirmed its firm stance. Reports indicate Iran’s conditions include: immediate lifting of the U.S. maritime blockade, immediate unfreezing of all Iranian assets, and cessation of hostilities across all regional fronts. 2) Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian departed Tehran aboard a special aircraft on September 22 en route to New York to attend the high-level week of the 81st UN General Assembly. He is scheduled to deliver a speech during the General Debate on the morning of September 23 local time. 3) Union leaders representing one-quarter of Escondida copper mine’s full-time workforce in Chile—operated by BHP—have urged members to reject the company’s final wage proposal, heightening the risk of a strike at the world’s largest copper mine. In a video released late Tuesday, union leaders representing over 1,000 supervisors and employees stated the company’s proposal failed to meet their demands and required workers to perform multiple tasks. 4) Alibaba unveiled a roadmap to expand its data center capacity to 20 gigawatts (GW) by 2032. In response, Citigroup upgraded its capital expenditure (Capex) forecasts for the company over the next three years. Analysts including Alicia Yap wrote in their report that, based on CEO Eddie Wu’s remarks at the Yunqi Conference about ‘investing through industrial collaboration,’ Citigroup assumes Alibaba will share investment burdens with partners. Citigroup revised its Capex forecasts for 2027–2029 to RMB 258 billion, RMB 283 billion, and RMB 282 billion respectively—up 13%, 41%, and 57% from prior estimates. 5) Documents disclosed on Tuesday revealed that accounts under Donald Trump’s name executed 1,156 securities transactions in July, totaling between USD 79 million and USD 270 million. At least USD 43.6 million was purchased, and at least USD 35.6 million was sold—marking a large-scale portfolio reshuffling.

World’s Top Copper Mine Faces Strike as Wage Talks Break Down

Oct 13, 2026

Workers at BHP’s Escondida mine will strike after wage negotiations collapsed, threatening global copper supply amidst rising demand and near-record prices. Additional strikes at other Chilean mines further tighten the outlook for the metal market.

bloomberg

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