Why has BASF maintained its 2026 earnings guidance despite the Middle East war?

BASF has maintained its full-year 2026 EBITDA before nonrecurring items guidance of €6.2–€7.0 billion because, although it acknowledges the war's uncertainty and potential impacts—including possible upward pressure on oil prices and US dollar appreciation—it currently cannot reliably quantify or assess the conflict’s effects due to rapidly evolving conditions; the company is actively monitoring risks and opportunities, has activated a cross-divisional crisis response team, and reports no supply shortages or demand declines so far, supporting its decision to hold guidance unchanged.

What are BASF’s key financial updates for Q1 2026 and how do they compare to prior year and analyst expectations?

BASF reported Q1 2026 net profit of €927 million, up 14.8% year-on-year; EBITDA before nonrecurring items was €2.36 billion—down 5.6% YoY but above the S&P Capital IQ consensus estimate of €2.28 billion; the EBITDA margin stood at 14.7%, down 0.4 percentage points; revenue fell 3% YoY to €16.02 billion, primarily due to negative currency effects from the US dollar and Chinese renminbi; and excluding over €100 million in currency headwinds, EBITDA would have matched the prior-year quarter.

BASF maintains forecast amid Middle East war uncertainty

Apr 30, 2026

BASF maintained its 2026 earnings guidance despite Middle East war risks affecting oil prices and chemical production forecasts. Q1 net profit rose 14.8%, though the chemicals segment reported a 30.5% EBITDA drop amid currency headwinds.

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