What are the key changes BASF made to its 2026 EBITDA guidance and underlying economic assumptions?

BASF raised its 2026 EBITDA before nonrecurring items guidance to €6.9–€7.7 billion from €6.2–€7.0 billion, citing better-than-expected first-half performance. It revised down its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 2.5% (from 2.7%), industrial production growth to 2% (from 2.3%), and chemical production growth to 1.8% (from 2.4%). It also adjusted its assumed average euro/dollar exchange rate to $1.17/€1.00 (from $1.20/€1.00) and Brent crude oil price to $80/barrel (from $65/barrel).

What drove BASF’s significantly higher Q2 2026 net profit and EBITDA compared to expectations and prior year?

BASF’s Q2 2026 net profit is projected at €4.1 billion—well above the €2.5 billion analyst consensus—primarily due to a €3.9 billion pre-tax disposal gain from the sale of BASF Coatings to Carlyle Group LLC on June 30; associated tax expenses are in the mid-triple-digit million-euro range. Q2 EBITDA before nonrecurring items rose to €2.4 billion (from €1.6 billion year-on-year), beating the €2.1 billion consensus, driven by higher earnings across all segments except surface technologies, alongside 16% higher sales (to €17.2 billion) due to increased selling prices and volumes.