Why are Brazil's PE and PP prices surging, and when is the peak expected?

Brazil's PE and PP prices have surged 64–80% since late February due to conflict-driven supply disruptions—especially from the Middle East and Asia—combined with Brazil's structural import dependency (e.g., PE demand of 3.65 million tonnes/year vs. domestic capacity of 3 million tonnes/year) and an artificial demand surge as buyers rushed to secure inventory; according to ICIS pricing editor Bruno Menini, prices are expected to peak around May 2026 before gradually normalizing over several months.

How do Brazil's anti-dumping duties on PE and PP imports affect supply and pricing?

Definitive anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on PE imports—$199.04/tonne from the US and $238.49/tonne from Canada—took effect this week for five years, while a 10.6% ADD on US PP imports remains in force until October 2027; though these measures keep North American supply accessible, they do so 'at high prices', and given that imported material supplied ~55% of Brazil’s PE market last year, the duties reinforce elevated pricing without resolving underlying supply shortages.