Will the industrial production capacity of Third World countries surpass that of former developed countries in the future? (Excluding China.)

Brazil ranks fifth in land area—smaller than the United States but roughly comparable in size to Australia. Its vast territory provides natural geographic barriers that serve as defensive strongholds in wartime, enabling it to endure and prolong conflicts. Even under adverse conditions, diligent exploration can yield the resources necessary for building an industrial foundation—and Brazil’s industrial resources are, in fact, quite robust. Moreover, Brazil enjoys a relatively mild and favorable climate. Centered on the Amazon River, its tropical rainforest climate—dominant across the Amazon Basin—features average annual temperatures of 27–29°C, with daily temperature variation exceeding annual variation. Rainfall is abundant and evenly distributed throughout the year, with no distinct dry season. In Manaus—the representative city—conditions remain perpetually hot and humid, with minimum temperatures rarely dropping below 20°C. With expansive plains, major rivers, year-round temperatures never falling below 20°C, minimal temperature fluctuations, and plentiful precipitation, Brazil possesses near-ideal conditions for agriculture. Its current population stands at 210 million—sufficient in scale to support the development of powerful agricultural and industrial sectors, including comprehensive industrial supply chains. Its industrial resource endowment is genuinely strong: rich in petroleum and metallic minerals, though lacking high-grade coal. Yet this poses little constraint at present, nor does it create acute energy shortages. The Amazon River’s discharge volume is seven times that of the Yangtze River; even modest hydropower stations built along its tributaries would generate abundant electricity—a level of hydroelectric advantage even China lacks. By contrast, although China is rich in high-quality coal, it is oil-poor and gas-scarce, and self-sufficiency in iron ore stands at only 40%. When adjusted per capita, the disparity becomes even more pronounced. Iron ore resources: Brazil is among the world’s top countries in iron ore reserves, with proven reserves totaling 33.3 billion tons—accounting for 9.8% of global reserves and ranking fifth worldwide. Its iron ore output ranks second globally. Most of Brazil’s iron ore deposits lie in the southeastern Brazilian Highlands, characterized by high quality and consistently ranking among the world’s top exporters.

Chapter IV of 'The Resource Curse: Black Gold, Coal Mountains, and the Prisoners of Transition' — 'The Lament of Latin America: The Vicious Cycle of Oil and Populism' (Serial Author: Chen Sir)

Bolivia’s lithium development lags significantly behind its neighbors Chile and Argentina. Partly, this reflects its adherence to a ‘state-led’ development model, which has slowed the inflow of technical expertise and capital. Partly, it stems from unique technical challenges posed by lithium extraction at the Uyuni Salt Flat—where lithium concentrations are relatively low and magnesium content unusually high. The successful, large-scale application of direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology remains the critical bottleneck. Bolivia’s lithium dilemma exemplifies the classic tension between ‘resource sovereignty’ and ‘development capacity’—a theme to be explored in greater depth in Volume VII, ‘Critical Minerals for the New Energy Era.’ IV. Comparative Analysis of Other Latin American Oil-Producing Countries Peru and Colombia: Relatively Prudent Resource Governance Among Latin America’s major petroleum and mineral producers, Peru and Colombia are widely regarded—by multiple comparative studies—as comparatively successful in managing resource revenues (though both face their own governance challenges). Peru’s macroeconomic stability (discussed further in Chapter XI on copper mining): Peru has established a relatively independent central bank and a fiscally prudent institutional framework. It employs stabilization funds—including a Fiscal Stabilization Fund and a Social Security Fund—to buffer against commodity price volatility. However, Peru simultaneously contends with persistent political instability: between 2016 and 2024, it experienced approximately eight different presidents or acting presidents, rendering political crises nearly routine. It also faces ongoing conflicts between mining companies and local communities, as previously noted. Colombia’s mitigation of ‘Dutch disease’: During periods of rising oil and coal revenues in the 1990s and 2000s, Colombia implemented fiscal rules—delinking government spending from cyclical fluctuations in oil revenue—to partially insulate its economy from Dutch disease effects, thereby preserving a relatively diversified export structure (including manufacturing, agriculture, and services). Nevertheless, Colombia continues to grapple with complex interlinkages between armed conflict (e.g., FARC, ELN) and mineral resource exploitation. In certain regions, coca alkaloids—not oil—constitute the far larger-scale manifestation of the ‘illicit resource curse.’ Brazil: A Complex Portrait of a Former Non-Oil Producer Brazil presents a particularly intriguing comparative case: a country endowed with massive resource wealth (iron ore, oil, and agricultural commodities), yet maintaining substantial industrial diversification. This makes it a uniquely valuable setting for examining the relationship between resource dependence and industrialization. After 2006, Brazil discovered giant pre-salt oil fields in the Atlantic Ocean’s deep waters, transforming it into a globally significant emerging oil producer. Petrobras—the Brazilian state-owned oil company—is one of Latin America’s largest corporations and a global leader in deepwater oil extraction technology. Yet Brazil’s oil wealth has also triggered political crisis: Between 2014 and 2016, the ‘Car Wash’ (Operação Lava Jato) anti-corruption investigation exposed a systemic corruption network centered on Petrobras—implicating leaders of virtually all major political parties, several former presidents (including Lula, who was imprisoned in connection with these cases before being acquitted on procedural grounds by the Supreme Court), and numerous large construction and industrial firms. The sheer scale (billions of dollars) and structural depth of the ‘Car Wash’ corruption revealed how even countries with relatively mature institutions can see state-owned resource enterprises become epicenters of systemic graft. Petrobras’s corruption network stands as the clearest Latin American illustration of ‘the resource curse in middle-capacity institutional settings.’

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