How will India's export ban impact the global sugar market?

As the market had already anticipated this policy, some trading activity had already been conducted under the assumption of 'restricted Indian exports', with the approximately 7 million tonnes of exports thus far this season viewed as the maximum possible volume. Meanwhile, India’s main sugar export destinations are concentrated in Africa, West Asia, and South Asia; however, demand has recently softened in key markets—such as East Africa—while port inventories have built up, providing some short-term buffer against supply shortages. Therefore, in terms of immediate impact on the current 2025/26 crushing season, the disruption to the spot market is relatively limited, somewhat curbing the potential for sustained one-way upward price movement. Looking ahead to the 2026/27 season, however, the formal implementation of the ban objectively removes a major potential source of incremental supply from the international market. Against a backdrop of already tightening global supply-demand fundamentals, the margin for error in long-term supply-demand balance will be severely compressed: should Thailand again experience reduced output next year due to climatic cycles—and with India already at 'zero exports' and holding relatively tight domestic stocks—the global sugar market would clearly lose its shock absorber. Global supply tightness would then hinge entirely on Brazil’s final output, potentially becoming a significant bullish factor for both raw and white sugar prices worldwide. Q2: After India’s supply cutoff, can Brazil and Thailand step in to fill the global supply gap? Brazil and Thailand can partially fill the supply gap, but the extent of coverage depends on the realization of their production increases and export pacing. Although Brazil’s Center-South region is entering a bumper crop season—with sugar output and cane crush in the second half of April both rising significantly year-on-year—the latest calculation by Sugar Weekly (New York) shows that soaring input and nitrogen fertilizer prices have pushed Brazil’s sugar production cost up sharply to 18.63 cents per pound. Given that current international spot prices are well below this cost level—causing industry-wide losses—sugar mills are highly likely to raise quotations to pass on these increased costs. Moreover, Thailand’s upcoming season faces slightly reduced planting area due to prior drought conditions and farmers switching to cassava cultivation, limiting its incremental supply. As global sugar exports are highly concentrated while imports are widely dispersed, expectations of a global supply-demand gap in the 2026/27 season could easily trigger episodic buying rushes. Economies heavily reliant on Indian sugar—particularly in neighboring South Asia and Africa—will be hit hardest, while major importers such as China and Indonesia will also face forced increases in import costs. Q3: How will the global sugar market evolve in the second half of the year? For the global sugar market to reverse its prior downward pressure and rebound in the second half of the year, the core dynamic hinges on the interplay between 'production uncertainties in Brazil’s Center-South region' and the evolving 'El Niño' phenomenon. 1) Sugar-ethanol ratio and domestic gasoline prices in Brazil: Currently, ethanol profitability in Brazil lags behind that of sugar, prompting mills—at the margin—to favor higher sugar production ratios. Policy developments add further uncertainty: on one hand, the Brazilian government has recently mentioned gasoline subsidies to combat inflation; on the other, amid rising international oil prices driven by the Iran conflict, Petrobras has maintained domestic gasoline prices at stable levels on a temporary basis—leading to lower-than-expected first-quarter profits and prompting the company last week to signal a possible future gasoline price hike. Yet, given the upcoming elections, some institutions still believe the probability of a substantial gasoline price increase by Petrobras before October remains low.

Petrobras reported first-quarter net profit of approximately $4.63 billion.

Petrobras reported first-quarter net profit of approximately $4.63 billion, down 38% compared to the first quarter of 2023. According to a Reuters report, this figure also fell significantly short of analysts’ expectations for the company. The report added that Petrobras plans to distribute total dividends of $2.61 billion—also below analyst forecasts. Petrobras also reported a 15% decline in revenue during the period, with sales of oil, natural gas, and fuels falling by 4.6%. Prior to releasing its first-quarter results, shareholders received disappointing fourth-quarter 2023 results in March, learning they would receive only the minimum dividend from Petrobras for a period of time. Petrobras CEO Jean-Paul Prates stated that this decision was made to raise funds to shift the company’s business focus from oil and natural gas toward wind and solar energy sectors.

Brazil's Petrobras posts 7% decline in first-quarter net profit

May 11, 2026

Brazilian state-run oil firm Petrobras reported a 7.2% drop in first-quarter net profit to 32.66 billion reais, missing analyst expectations despite a slight rise in net revenue.

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