According to Citigroup's Max Layton, why are oil prices fluctuating so wildly right now?

Oil prices are fluctuating wildly because it remains unclear whether Iran and the U.S. — under President Donald Trump — will reach an agreement to end the war; Layton stated it is 'very difficult to predict' if Iran will do a deal, especially given the new leadership in Iran, and that this uncertainty forces markets to react sharply to every piece of news, causing prices to 'move around like crazy.'

What did Citigroup recently revise in its Brent oil price forecast, and why?

Citigroup raised its baseline Brent price forecast by $15 to $110 and delayed its base-case timeline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-late April to the end of May, after a second round of U.S.-Iran peace talks failed to materialize.

Citi Sees Oil ‘Moving Around Like Crazy’ in Hope-and-Fear Dance

May 7, 2026

Citigroup forecasts continued wild oil price fluctuations until an Iran-US agreement ends the war, citing geopolitical uncertainty and physical supply pressures despite global stockpiles.

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