Why did Citi revise its Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast upward, and what is the new forecast?

Citi revised its Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast upward from $75 per barrel to $80 per barrel due to the prolonged back-and-forth in U.S.-Iran dealmaking, despite still expecting a resolution to the conflict. The revision reflects heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical uncertainty stemming from five months of ongoing fighting and stalled negotiations.

What are Citi's unchanged Brent crude forecasts for Q4 2026 and full-year 2027, and how do they compare to the revised Q3 forecast?

Citi maintained its fourth-quarter 2026 average Brent crude forecast at $70 per barrel and its full-year 2027 average forecast at $65 per barrel — both unchanged from prior estimates — contrasting with the higher $80/bbl Q3 2026 forecast, indicating an expected near-term price spike followed by a gradual decline as geopolitical tensions ease or stabilize.

Citi Revises Q3 2026 Brent Crude Forecast to $80 per Barrel

Aug 7, 2026

Citigroup raised its Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel due to prolonged U.S.-Iran dealmaking delays. Oil prices climbed on geopolitical worries, consistent with Goldman Sachs' view of Brent staying in the $80-$90 range.

reuters

2026-04-30

Citigroup Retreats from Physical Metals Markets Amid Trader Cuts

2026-05-07

Citi Sees Oil ‘Moving Around Like Crazy’ in Hope-and-Fear Dance

2026-06-11

Citi Hires Ryan Beaupré as MD in Consumer and Retail Investment Banking Push

2026-06-17

Citi Scraps Calls for RBI Hikes as Iran Deal Cools Price Risks

2026-08-07

Citi Revises Q3 2026 Brent Crude Forecast to $80 per Barrel