LME copper prices surged to a record high of USD 14,779 per tonne, while SHFE copper rebounded above the RMB 110,000 per tonne threshold. As copper increasingly embodies both industrial and AI-computing-resource attributes, what impact does this have across industries?

Beneath this new high, the industry chain is experiencing divergent impacts. Upstream mining enterprises benefit most directly: according to reports by Yicai News, Guojin Securities’ statistics show that output from 49 sampled copper companies totaled 8.196 million tonnes in the first half of 2026—a 4.3% year-on-year decline—while Chinese copper producers posted an逆势 (counter-cyclical) growth of 1.2%. The latest research report from Wuhuan Securities concludes that supply tightening is the core driver behind copper’s successive record highs, while tariff-arbitrage opportunities generate a 'suction effect' on the policy front. Mid- and downstream players, meanwhile, are growing increasingly cautious amid elevated prices: spot premiums have retreated, and some end-user enterprises have shifted to a 'produce-to-order' model. Fan Rui, Head of Nonferrous Metals Research at Guoyuan Futures, points out that price-induced demand suppression remains the largest variable within the bullish narrative. On the demand side, new drivers are replacing traditional engines. Morgan Stanley estimates that AI data centers consume roughly twice as much copper per unit as conventional data centers; global copper consumption by data centers is projected to reach ~740,000 tonnes in 2026 and climb to ~1.3 million tonnes by 2028. A pure electric vehicle uses approximately four times more copper than an internal-combustion-engine vehicle; China’s new-energy vehicle sector alone is expected to drive ~1.84 million tonnes of copper demand in 2026. Estimates for the incremental copper demand attributable to AI vary widely among investment banks: Citigroup forecasts ~150,000 tonnes annually; JPMorgan estimates 475,000 tonnes for 2026; and Guo Chaohui, Chief Commodities Analyst at China International Capital Corporation (CICC) Research Department, projects up to 1 million tonnes. UBS therefore judges that copper is transitioning from a 'cyclical commodity' to a 'strategic resource', with its pricing anchor shifting from real estate and infrastructure to power grids and AI computing capacity—imparting to the copper bull market an imagination space beyond traditional cycles. Regarding the actual demand pull from AI computing capacity, the aforementioned A-share company stated that it has not yet conducted related internal statistics. In its view, the underlying demand for AI still stems from copper foil used in printed circuit boards and grid-driven energy storage needs—'the fundamental demand remains here.' Market expectations regarding AI-driven incremental demand may require further empirical validation. The bullish camp remains dominant: UBS Wealth Management forecasts copper prices could reach USD 15,500/tonne over the next few quarters—the most optimistic outlook among major investment banks; Citigroup raised its short-term price forecast to USD 14,500/tonne and set a 6–12 month target of USD 15,000/tonne; Guo Chaohui believes current valuations are relatively low and likewise targets ~USD 15,000/tonne. Goldman Sachs’ year-end 2026 target of USD 13,735/tonne has already been surpassed by current prices; its analysis indicates copper prices would need to rise to ~USD 15,000/tonne by 2035 to stimulate sufficient new supply. On September 8, domestic research reports were released in rapid succession. According to an incomplete tally by Yicai News, Huatai Securities’ latest report argues that copper’s ascent to historical highs enjoys strong fundamental support: both mine supply and scrap-copper increments are constrained, while sharply declining smelting margins may further tighten supply; however, the supply-demand deficit in 2027 is expected to narrow relative to 2026, with the long-term copper price center gradually rising only thereafter. Dongfang Securities’ report is even more optimistic: the sector’s trading logic is shifting from 'expectations' to 'reality'; the transmission of ore shortages to refined copper is likely becoming tangible, and combined with demand from power grids, AI, and U.S. stockpiling, the sector may witness a confluence of earnings upgrades and valuation recovery. Cautious voices also emerged: Everbright Futures notes ultra-low inventories provide a floor for prices, but rising interest-rate expectations and price-induced demand suppression will continue to cap upside potential; Bank of China Securities states that August’s stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll data heightened rate-hike expectations, and the discount-rate pressure stemming from copper’s financial attributes will constrain valuation space.

Copper prices hit a new historical high.

On September 8, SHFE copper reclaimed the RMB 110,000/tonne psychological threshold, hitting a recent high; concurrently, the main international copper contract strengthened by 2%, setting another all-time record. This year’s copper price low occurred in late March, when escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions triggered stagflation concerns—copper prices bottomed near RMB 92,000/tonne in late March, reaching their nadir on March 23 amid extreme market pessimism ('The Moment of Panic Has Passed'). Since Q2, copper prices have exhibited a volatile upward trend, driven primarily by recurring tug-of-war between macro sentiment and fundamentals. As the marginal impact of U.S. Treasury yields and oil price hikes wanes, market focus has shifted toward fundamentals—and persistent supply tightness. Refined copper concentrate treatment charges (TCs) plunged to a historic low of USD -201.56/tonne; portside copper-concentrate inventories declined from 825,000 tonnes to 764,000 tonnes—a modest drop. Copper-concentrate supply constraints persist, and some smelters report that declining ore grades are increasingly affecting output. On the recycled-copper front, tightening domestic tax-invoice policies have exacerbated scarcity of invoiced scrap copper. Anode smelters, constrained by invoice requirements on both procurement and sales sides, are forced to purchase invoiced scrap copper at premium prices—raising production costs, squeezing margins, and limiting output. Smelters’ raw-material dilemma—'tight copper concentrate, scarce cold feed'—has thus deepened further. On the demand side, high copper prices exert some dampening effect on consumption—but the impact remains muted. Entering Q2 and Q3, some smelters entered scheduled maintenance periods, while downstream enterprises maintained relatively robust procurement demand, driving continuous declines in domestic electrolytic copper social inventories. Not only has domestic social inventory drawn down faster than expected, but bonded-zone inventories have also fallen steadily—reaching multi-year lows to date. Compared with prior years, this year’s inflection point for electrolytic copper inventory drawdown arrived earlier than market expectations, and both the pace and magnitude of drawdown exceeded expectations—constituting a fundamental pillar underpinning copper’s sustained strength. Additionally, sulfur shortages triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade may further boost copper prices. Hydrometallurgical copper refining consumes sulfuric acid, and approximately 15% of global hydrometallurgical capacity remains operational—concentrated mainly in Africa, where the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) hosts ~3 million tonnes of copper-smelting capacity, over 90% of which relies on hydrometallurgy. Africa—led by the DRC and Zambia—is the world’s most concentrated region for hydrometallurgical copper supply and net sulfuric-acid consumption, and thus faces the greatest potential global supply disruption due to sulfur shortages. Most African sulfur originates from the Middle East. Currently, local African sulfur and sulfuric-acid supplies are running critically low, and sulfur prices are surging accordingly. Should Middle East tensions persist, global hydrometallurgical copper output will likely contract. The macro contradiction fueling copper’s sharp rally lies in elevated U.S. Treasury yields coupled with heightened market expectations of further rate hikes. Yet each time such rate-hike expectations trigger a copper-price correction, prices swiftly rebound—demonstrating remarkable resilience.

Copper Rises Toward Record on Signs of Tight Supplies in China

Sep 21, 2026

Copper prices surged toward record highs amid tightening supplies and low inventories in China ahead of key holidays. Seasonal demand and import tariff concerns further constrained markets, pushing LME futures higher despite interest rate headwinds.

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