London copper and New York copper both hit record highs! Tariff expectations and supply shortages drive the rally.

Copper prices surged to new all-time highs simultaneously on the London and New York markets, becoming the most watched focus in the current commodities market. Tariff expectations have persistently compressed physical metal supplies outside the U.S., compounding long-standing supply-demand imbalances—both jointly fueling this rally. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions have heightened inflation concerns, adding uncertainty to copper’s outlook. The LME three-month copper benchmark contract peaked at $14,858.50 per tonne, surpassing the previous day’s record high of $14,779.00—and marking its third consecutive trading day at a new all-time high. NYMEX copper futures likewise climbed to a record high of $6.894 per pound. The immediate catalyst for this surge is the persistent market expectation that the Trump administration will impose tariffs on refined copper imports, prompting traders to rush tens of thousands of tonnes of copper into the U.S. for stockpiling—significantly tightening physical supply in the London market. It should be noted that the U.S. launched strikes against Iranian oil tankers, pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel; rising concerns over inflation prospects and the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory have consequently exerted some downward pressure on copper prices. Tariff expectations are distorting metal flows, straining supply in the London market One core driver behind this sharp copper price rally is the disruptive impact of large-scale metal flow shifts on the LME’s physical market. Anticipating U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports, traders have rushed to ship hundreds of thousands of tonnes to the U.S. for pre-emptive stockpiling—causing a pronounced tightening of physical supply outside the U.S. and resulting in a supply shortage in the London market.

Trump threatens to bomb Tehran; gold surges past $4,130/oz! LME copper warrant cancellations approach 60%—the ultimate 'copper shortage' storm arrives!

I. Policy & Macroeconomics — Brent breaks $95 + 12th-night bombing + Section 232 window period + TC/RC at -$141: Three-core resonance in the copper market 🔥 Ultimate escalation in U.S.-Iran conflict — 12th-night bombing! Trump threatens to bomb Tehran! Iran vows 'an eye for an eye.' At 5:30 a.m. Beijing time on July 23 (July 22 local time), U.S. Central Command confirmed launching a new round of strikes against Iranian military targets—marking the 12th consecutive night. The U.S. statement declared it would 'continue degrading Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in relevant waters.' Since resuming maritime blockades on July 14, nine merchant vessels have been forced to alter course, and one has lost navigational capability. On July 22, Trump posted: 'From now on, every time Iran fires upon ships in the Strait of Hormuz—whether with missiles, rockets, drones, or other weapons—the U.S. will bomb and destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant, including facilities located within or near Tehran!' With strike targets expanded from military installations to civilian infrastructure, the nature of the conflict has fundamentally changed! Iran’s firm response: ① Foreign Minister Araghchi: 'Anyone supporting acts of aggression will become a legitimate target.' ② Aerospace Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Musavi: 'If Iranian bridges and power plants are attacked, electricity supplies to U.S. allies will certainly be cut off.' ③ Armed Forces’ official statement: 'The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Should the U.S. carry out its threats, Iran will not allow a single drop of oil to be exported from this region; all regional oil, gas, and power infrastructure will become targets.' ④ IRGC Navy: Naval mines have been laid along the southern channel of the Strait; alternative routes are warned against. ⑤ Parliament Speaker Qalibaf: 'The situation in the Strait will not revert to its pre-war state. Either everyone gets access—or no one does.' Transmission logic to the copper market: ① Soaring oil prices (Brent at $94.07, intraday breaching $95) → sharp rise in copper smelting energy costs → deepening smelter losses (TC/RC at -$134/tonne, compounded by soaring energy costs → potential per-tonne losses exceeding RMB 1,000 for pure smelters); ② Iran’s 'oil cutoff' threat → global energy panic → surging copper transportation costs → higher landed premiums; ③ Extreme risk-aversion sentiment → gold breaks $4,130 → COMEX gold up 1.46% → full recovery of nonferrous metals’ financial attributes → opening room for copper’s financial attribute recovery; ④ Houthi blockade of Saudi Arabia → heightened risks in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait → multiple critical shipping corridors simultaneously under strain. Geopolitical conflict has elevated the copper market from 'pure supply-demand driven' to 'geopolitical + supply-demand + safe-haven' three-core resonance! 📊 Section 232 copper tariff 90-day window — deepening split into 'two copper worlds' 📌 On June 30, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Section 232 copper industry review report confirmed: A uniform 15% ad valorem additional tariff on globally imported refined copper will take effect on January 1, 2027, rising permanently to 30% on January 1, 2028. A 90-day presidential review window is currently open (ending by end-September); tariff implementation requires presidential proclamation. Current tariff regime: Effective August 1, 2025, the U.S. has imposed a 50% additional tariff on imported copper semi-finished products. Refined copper remains temporarily exempt—but phased-in tariffs begin in 2027.

Copper Rises as Risk Assets Shrug Off More US Strikes on Iran

Jul 8, 2026

Copper prices rose over 0.9% on the LME, driven by AI-driven power demand optimism despite geopolitical tensions from US strikes on Iran. Other industrial metals like zinc and aluminum also gained as markets focused on long-term demand.

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