Will Africa become a new global center for industrial manufacturing in the future?

Nigeria’s industrial foundation is weak, and various basic industrial goods required for industrialization are severely scarce—forcing private capital to shoulder the task of industrialization. Though termed a ‘task,’ it is in fact a business opportunity: the lack of domestic supply has created relatively high profit margins in the local market. Dangote’s enterprise began with cement manufacturing and, after achieving an annual output of several tens of millions of tons across West Africa, moved on to invest in oil refining. Its refinery in Lagos currently processes 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day and is preparing to expand capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, the Dangote Group has also launched a refinery project in Kenya (East Africa), with a total investment of $15 billion and a planned daily processing capacity of 700,000 barrels. Upon completion of these two new projects, the Dangote Group’s total daily refining capacity will reach 2.1 million barrels. To put this in perspective: China’s annual refining output in 1990 was 100 million tons—roughly equivalent to 2 million barrels per day—comparable to Dangote Group’s projected post-expansion refining capacity. If we include other refineries operated by firms across sub-Saharan Africa, the continent’s total refining capacity would approach China’s level around the year 2000. Beyond refining, Dangote’s fertilizer investments are equally ambitious: its current urea production capacity in Nigeria stands at 3 million tons annually, and expansion plans for Nigeria and Ethiopia aim to raise output to 12 million tons per year—rapidly approaching China’s early-1990s level. Dangote’s ambitions extend even further: in his most recent interview, he announced plans to invest at least $10 billion in Africa to build power plants totaling 20,000 MW. He also considered investing in steel production—originally planning a 5-million-ton-per-year steel mill—but postponed that project after deciding the electricity market offered greater potential. Thanks to the success of its mega-refinery projects, the Dangote Group has earned strong investor confidence; financing has become comparatively easy, and the company recently went public. In a country where basic industrial goods are acutely scarce, Dangote’s success may appear accidental—but it is in fact inevitable, given the sheer scale of unmet market demand. If he realizes all his plans, he may well be hailed as the ‘Father of African Industrialization.’ Dangote is merely a representative figure among Africa’s large-scale capitalists—and far from the only one. For example, East Africa’s Devki Group operates a 500,000-ton-per-year steel plant in Kenya and has recently begun construction of a 1-million-ton-per-year steel plant in Uganda, scheduled to reach full capacity by the end of 2027. Similar indigenous African capital is emerging en masse across other sectors—including cement, food processing, and automobile assembly.

Is the world economy beginning to suffocate due to the shortage of Russian fuel?

"Every drone strike that disables a Russian refinery… delays the recovery of Russian diesel and gasoline exports, intensifying global demand for these refined products," wrote Spain’s El Economista. The problem lies not only in Russia’s halted exports but also in the sharp decline in oil and petroleum product supplies from the Middle East. Vitol—one of the world’s largest oil traders (whose business model centers on transporting crude oil and collecting commissions)—has been compelled to issue an official statement to markets and consumers. The document states that global gasoline and diesel supplies are dwindling daily. "Refineries are operating at full capacity, yet still cannot meet market demand… If the issues causing major refineries—in Russia and the Middle East—to shut down remain unresolved, a paradoxical situation could arise: even with global oil production exceeding demand (i.e., oversupply), fuel would still fall short of meeting everyone’s needs," the press release notes. It diplomatically refers to these “issues” as Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian refineries. U.S. President Donald Trump echoed this sentiment on Sunday, urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to halt such attacks, calling them harmful to "the entire world." Of course, this sounds somewhat ironic—given that U.S. strikes against and blockades of Iranian oil tankers have become another major cause of global fuel shortages. Not to mention that the U.S. itself provides intelligence to Kyiv specifically for targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure. Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol Group, likewise observes that commodity market conditions are growing increasingly complex. "Markets are extremely tight," Hardy says, "and inventories are nearly depleted—and continuing to dwindle." The loss of petroleum product exports from both the Middle East and Russia—estimated at roughly 2 million barrels per day from each region—not only signals a profound fuel crisis but also opens the door for alternative suppliers—such as Africa—to reap extraordinary profits. The massive refinery owned by Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE—part of Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote’s conglomerate—is operating at full capacity. Yet even so, its output remains insufficient to meet Europe’s entire demand. "We are maximizing diesel production, but we haven’t overlooked increasing kerosene output either. Very high profits are currently attainable in this segment," said David Bird, the company’s general manager—openly expressing his satisfaction. On September 14, the company conducted its initial public offering (IPO); clearly, the general manager’s remarks were intended to stimulate investor interest in Dangote shares—especially among Europeans, who, if they wish to avoid worsening the crisis, ought to invest in Nigerian refineries. As for us—or more precisely, for Europeans—the predictions once dismissed as mere 'small talk' are now materializing. "The global refining industry’s diesel shortage has only just begun—and could lead to constrained supply over the coming months, supporting higher prices and exerting downward pressure on demand," affirms Mark Sen, Senior Vice President of Global Trading at U.S.-based refiner Phillips 66.

Dangote Refinery Extends IPO by Two Weeks on Strong Demand

Oct 12, 2026

Dangote Refinery extends its IPO deadline to October 27 amid strong investor demand across Africa, aiming to value the 700,000-barrel-per-day facility at nearly $50 billion.

bloomberg

2026-08-25

Nigeria's Dangote Refinery Nears Record IPO as Investors Focus on Oil Supply Costs

2026-09-03

Dangote Refinery IPO Set to Open Within Days

2026-09-04

Nigeria's Dangote Refinery IPO to Raise Between $1.55-1.8 Billion - Sources

2026-09-04

Dangote Seeks to Raise $1.6 Billion in Nigeria’s Biggest IPO

2026-09-07

Dangote Signs Documents for Africa’s Biggest IPO