What is the main risk to Dangote Refinery's profitability and valuation as highlighted in the news?

The main risk is challenges in accessing feedstock (crude oil) at competitive prices, which would increase costs, compress margins and utilisation rates, and negatively impact the refinery's commercial performance and valuation.

Why is relying solely on Nigerian crude oil problematic for Dangote Refinery, according to the news?

Relying solely on Nigerian crude is problematic because much of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited's joint-venture crude is tied to oil-backed loans and pre-export deals—reducing availability for Dangote—and because Nigerian crude priced in naira is still expensive, as NNPC benchmarks it against international prices like Brent that include freight and logistics costs domestic refiners do not incur.