Will Africa become a new global center for industrial manufacturing in the future?

Nigeria’s industrial foundation is weak, and various basic industrial goods required for industrialization are severely scarce. As a result, private capital has had to shoulder the task of industrialization. Though termed a ‘task,’ it is in fact a business opportunity: the lack of domestic supply has created relatively high profit margins in the local market. Dangote Group began with cement manufacturing and, after achieving an annual production capacity of several tens of millions of tons across West Africa, moved on to invest in petroleum refining. Its refinery in Lagos has a daily processing capacity of 650,000 barrels and is preparing to expand to 1.4 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, Dangote Group has also launched a refinery project in Kenya (East Africa), with a total investment of $15 billion and a planned daily capacity of 700,000 barrels. Upon completion of both new projects, Dangote Group’s total daily refining capacity will reach 2.1 million barrels. For context, China’s annual refining output in 1990 was 100 million tons—equivalent to roughly 2 million barrels per day—comparable to Dangote Group’s projected post-expansion capacity. If we include other refineries operated by firms across sub-Saharan Africa, the region’s total refining capacity will approach China’s level around the year 2000. Beyond refining, Dangote’s fertilizer investments are equally ambitious: its current urea production capacity in Nigeria stands at 3 million tons annually, and expansion plans for Nigeria and Ethiopia aim to raise output to 12 million tons per year—reaching China’s early-1990s level. Dangote’s ambitions extend even further: in a recent interview, he announced plans to invest at least $10 billion in new power plants across Africa, totaling 20,000 MW. He also previously intended to build a steel plant with an annual capacity of 5 million tons, but postponed that plan—opting instead to prioritize the electricity sector, where returns appear more promising. Thanks to the success of its mega-refinery projects, Dangote Group has earned strong confidence from capital markets; financing has become comparatively easy, and the company recently completed a successful IPO. In a country where basic industrial goods are acutely scarce, Dangote’s success may seem accidental—but it is in fact inevitable, driven by overwhelming market demand. Should he realize his full vision, he may well be hailed as the ‘Father of African Industrialization.’ Dangote is merely one representative of Africa’s rising industrial capital; others abound—including Devki Group in East Africa. This group operates a 500,000-ton-per-year steel plant in Kenya and is currently constructing a 1-million-ton-per-year steel plant in Uganda, scheduled to reach full capacity by the end of 2027. Similar indigenous African capital is emerging en masse across other sectors—including cement, food processing, and automobile assembly.

Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa

Tanzania is building the large-scale Julius Nyerere Hydropower Station, with a total installed capacity of 2,115 MW and an estimated annual generation of 6.3 billion kWh. Dongfang Electric Corporation is responsible for construction and supplying all equipment for the station [37]. Commercial operation is set to begin in June 2025. In addition, Tanzania is developing smaller-scale photovoltaic and natural gas power plants. Recognizing that electricity supply will become a major bottleneck as industrialization advances, the Tanzanian government has initiated a nuclear energy program—though still in its infancy, with actual construction not expected before the 2030s. Nigeria is prioritizing photovoltaic and natural gas power generation. It has already signed agreements with Chinese enterprises for three projects: a 3 GW gas-fired power station, a 4 GW integrated wind-solar-hydro power project, and other hydropower initiatives—bringing total installed capacity to 8 GW, equivalent to 2.4 times the country’s current electricity supply [38]. Among these, the Akwa Ibom Combined-Cycle Gas Power Plant has a total installed capacity of 3,000 MW and employs highly efficient gas-steam combined-cycle technology. Core generating equipment includes 12 Siemens SGT5-2000E gas turbines, 12 waste-heat boilers supplied by XiZi JieNeng, and 6 Siemens SST-600 steam turbines [39]. Upon completion, the plant is projected to generate 15–20 billion kWh annually. Like East African countries, Nigeria also has plans to develop nuclear power. Other West African nations—such as Ghana—have already signed contracts for nuclear power plants. Currently, five countries—Russia, France, China, the United States, and South Korea—possess nuclear reactor export capabilities and are competing intensely, making financing and cost terms comparatively favorable for African nations. Overall, within approximately ten years, per capita annual electricity consumption in West and East Africa is expected to exceed 500 kWh—with some countries possibly surpassing 1,000 kWh, reaching levels comparable to China in the 1990s or India in 2010. 2. Petroleum Refining Infrastructure Gasoline is a critical energy source, accounting for roughly 30% of global primary energy consumption. Prior to the 2020s, although many sub-Saharan African countries produced oil, their refining capacity was negligible—forcing heavy reliance on imported refined products and draining foreign exchange reserves. In 2024, Dangote Group’s petroleum refinery commenced operations in the Lekki Free Trade Zone in Nigeria. The project was largely constructed by Chinese companies, whose firms also supplied core equipment—though design work appears to have been jointly undertaken by Dangote Group and an Indian firm. Its designed capacity is 650,000 barrels per day of crude oil processing, plus annual outputs of 850,000 tons of polypropylene and 500,000 tons of polyethylene resin, with a total investment exceeding $19 billion. As the world’s largest single-site refinery, its commissioning ended Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on imported refined fuels and fundamentally reshaped Africa’s energy landscape [40]. Currently, Dangote plans to expand the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day and increase annual polypropylene output from 1 million to 1.5 million tons [41]. Dangote also intends to construct another refinery in East Africa, with a daily crude processing capacity of 650,000 barrels, targeting the entire East African market—the location (Kenya or Tanzania) remains under consideration [42]. Once all these projects are complete, total daily crude processing capacity will reach 2.05 million barrels—equivalent to roughly 100 million tons annually—approaching China’s 1990 level.

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