What is the ECB's likely timing and condition for its first interest rate hike, according to the sources cited in the article?

According to two anonymous sources close to the discussion, ECB policymakers are likely to raise interest rates for the first time at their next meeting in June, unless there is a swift and favourable resolution to the Iran conflict that brings energy prices back down to pre-war levels. The decision hinges on the persistence of disruptions to fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated energy costs—specifically, if spot Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel and traffic remains disrupted.

How many rate hikes do ECB policymakers expect, and what is the basis for that expectation?

The sources stated that ECB policymakers expect 'at least two rate hikes' under the current scenario, citing the ECB's baseline projections published in March. This expectation is tied directly to ongoing inflationary pressures driven by energy supply disruptions, and was already discussed during the most recent governing council meeting—where some policymakers argued in favour of a rate increase, and consensus formed around necessary policy action in June absent a fundamental improvement in the outlook.

ECB Policymakers See First of Several Rate Hikes in June, Sources Say

Apr 30, 2026

European Central Bank policymakers anticipate at least two interest rate hikes starting in June, driven by soaring inflation linked to disrupted fuel flows and Brent crude prices exceeding $100 per barrel amid regional conflicts.

reuters

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