What is the main reason the ECB is expected to raise interest rates in June, according to the Reuters poll?

The ECB is expected to hike its deposit rate in June primarily to prevent the energy price shock—driven by the ongoing Middle East war—from feeding into core inflation; the war has kept oil prices above $100 per barrel, pushing consumer price inflation more than one percentage point above the ECB’s 2% target, and policymakers now view the economy as edging closer to an 'adverse scenario' rather than the baseline outlook.

How many rate hikes do most economists in the Reuters poll expect the ECB to deliver in 2024, and what is the prevailing uncertainty around further moves?

Around 85% of economists (59 out of 70) in the May 8–13 Reuters poll expect a 25-basis-point hike to lift the deposit rate to 2.25% in June; nearly half (34 of 70) anticipate at least one additional hike later this year—most likely next quarter—while about 47% expect only one hike total or none at all, reflecting no clear consensus on further tightening due to fragile growth, weak sentiment, and limited evidence of second-round inflation effects.

ECB to Hike Rates in June Amid War-Led Energy Inflation Spike: Reuters Poll

May 13, 2026

A Reuters poll predicts the ECB will raise deposit rates in June to combat inflation driven by Middle East war-induced energy shocks. Oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, influencing core inflation expectations and economic growth forecasts.

reuters

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