According to the Reuters poll, what is the consensus view on the ECB's September 2024 rate decision and its likely stance afterward?

The Reuters poll shows that all 65 economists surveyed predicted the ECB will raise its deposit rate by a quarter-point to 2.50% on September 10 — its second and final hike of the cycle — with 91% expecting the rate to remain at 2.50% through year-end and 78% seeing it unchanged through mid-2025; economists attribute this 'done-hiking' stance to fragile economic conditions, surging bond yields, public finance woes, and the view that current inflation (3.3% in August) is driven largely by energy costs — a supply-side shock — rather than broad-based demand pressures.

Why do economists believe the ECB is unlikely to deliver a third rate hike despite rising global bond yields and renewed Middle East tensions?

Economists believe the ECB is unlikely to deliver a third hike because they judge the central bank unwilling to risk pushing a fragile economy into recession to combat what remains a textbook supply-side shock — primarily driven by energy price rises — especially amid worsening public finances and sharply higher bond yields; as ING’s Carsten Brzeski stated, 'it's difficult to envisage the ECB being willing to risk a recession to tackle what is still a textbook supply-side shock,' and policymakers are reportedly reluctant to signal further tightening due to well-anchored long-term inflation expectations.

ECB to Raise Rates a Second Time in September, but Then Done, Say Economists: Reuters Poll

Sep 3, 2026

A Reuters poll predicts the ECB will raise interest rates twice in September, driven by energy and food price inflation, though further hikes are unlikely due to recession risks.

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