According to the EIA, when is global oil production expected to fully recover from the impact of Middle East conflict, and what is the key price forecast for Brent crude in Q3?

The EIA predicts that global oil production and trade volumes—previously disrupted by the Middle East conflict—will fully recover by the end of this year. For the third quarter, the EIA forecasts the average spot price of Brent crude oil to be around $74 per barrel, down from $85 per barrel in June and significantly lower than its prior forecast of over $101 per barrel.

What does the EIA project for global oil market balance and U.S. gasoline prices in the coming months, based on its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook?

The EIA states that most oil production previously halted in the Middle East is expected to resume by Q1 2027, increasing global supply and reducing reliance on inventory drawdowns—pushing the market back into oversupply and exerting downward pressure on crude prices; it projects average crude oil prices for next year at about $65 per barrel, revised down from over $79 per barrel, and forecasts U.S. motor fuel prices to average $3.80 per gallon in Q3, down from $4.21 per gallon in Q2.

EIA Predicts Global Oil Production to Fully Recover by Year-End

Jul 14, 2026

The EIA forecasts global oil production will fully recover by year-end, lowering Brent crude price expectations to $74 per barrel for Q3. Increased supply is expected to create market oversupply by early 2027, pressuring prices and U.S. gasoline costs.

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EIA Predicts Global Oil Production to Fully Recover by Year-End

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EIA Predicts Global Oil Production to Fully Recover by Year-End

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