Crude oil plunged 10% intraday! Vance calls for 'cutting ties with Trump', blaming the 'Iran war' for the GOP’s defeat; Democratic leaders vow to block tariffs and war.

Jeffries stated: 'We pledged to fight for an America that is affordable—and we are determined to deliver on that promise.' He further emphasized that, in addition to tariffs and the Iran issue, cuts to Medicaid must be reversed and tax credits under the Affordable Care Act extended. Jeffries has consistently linked the Iran war to rising domestic living costs in the U.S., arguing that the conflict drives up energy prices and places added financial strain on ordinary households. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff policies further inflate costs for businesses and consumers alike—both have become key Democratic campaign targets against Republican economic policy in the midterm elections. With Democrats securing control of both chambers of Congress, Jeffries is poised to assume the role of Speaker of the House in the new Congress, granting the party renewed authority over committee agendas and investigative powers in the House. On Iran, Democrats have previously introduced multiple War Powers Resolutions aimed at constraining Trump’s ability to sustain military operations without congressional authorization. Jeffries has stated that Democrats will continue advancing such resolutions until the war ends. However, Democratic control of Congress does not mean the war can be unilaterally terminated overnight. The new Congress will not officially convene until January 2027, and Trump retains presidential veto power. Moreover, the executive branch holds substantial authority over military operations. While Democrats can raise the political and fiscal costs of continued warfare through War Powers Resolutions, defense appropriations reviews, and congressional oversight, actually forcing Trump to halt hostilities still faces significant institutional and political hurdles. The same applies to tariffs. Democrats may push legislation to rescind or restrict Trump’s tariff measures—but whether such bills ultimately become law depends on whether the president signs them, and whether Congress can override a veto. This means that, over the next two years, the Trump administration will face not only internal Republican criticism over its war policy, but also more systematic legislative and oversight resistance from a Democratic-controlled Congress. Post-election surge in expectations for diplomatic conflict resolution severely hits crude oil Political developments rapidly transmit to global energy markets. On Wednesday, international crude oil futures fell further after several consecutive days of decline. As prospects solidified for Democratic control of both chambers of Congress—and as Vance publicly attributed the GOP’s crushing defeat to the Iran war—market expectations surged for a U.S. diplomatic resolution and reduced risk of military escalation. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Democratic sweep of Congress heightened market expectations for a relatively swift resolution to the Middle East conflict, while simultaneously lowering perceived risks of further U.S. military expansion. The core driver behind this oil price plunge is a fundamental shift in market expectations regarding the war’s duration and supply disruption risks. Previously, U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran—and associated risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—had persistently elevated the supply-risk premium in crude oil. Investors feared that further escalation could inflict significantly greater shocks to global energy supplies. Yet Democrats’ sweeping victory in the midterms means the Trump administration will now confront stronger congressional checks when pursuing additional military action against Iran.

U.S.-Iran ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz: How will the sharp oil price drop affect the global energy market?

Please remember to like and share! If you haven’t yet subscribed, please follow the 'Sanlang Macroeconomics' account—thank you! Summary: Brent crude, having already plunged 16% last week, dropped sharply again this week—down nearly 24% cumulatively. Trump signaled de-escalation in the conflict; energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually resuming; and global crude supply has once again exceeded demand—causing international oil prices to shed their prior war-related risk premium. The international crude oil market is undergoing a dramatic adjustment. On November 10, international oil prices continued their steep decline. According to Reuters data, Brent crude futures briefly fell to $89.53 per barrel in the afternoon—a 3.31% drop—marking the first time since September 1 that the price had fallen below the $90-per-barrel threshold. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 2.9% to $84.33 per barrel. This downturn did not occur suddenly. In the prior week alone, Brent crude had already declined 16%, registering its largest single-week drop since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The further slide on November 10 brought Brent’s price down approximately 24% from its late-October peak of $117.64 per barrel. Here lies the question: The U.S. and Iran have not formally announced a ceasefire agreement, nor have they publicly confirmed any substantive breakthrough in negotiations—so why did international oil prices plummet so sharply within such a short timeframe? The answer lies in the market’s reassessment of war risk, oil transportation security, and global supply-demand dynamics. The geopolitical risk premium that previously drove oil prices higher is now receding—while the underlying supply surplus, previously masked by wartime tensions, has reemerged as investors’ primary concern. First, geopolitical concerns are gradually easing, and the war-related risk premium is declining. A major factor behind the earlier surge in international oil prices was the military conflict among the U.S., Israel, and Iran—and the potential for prolonged disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy transit corridors: roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption passes through it. A prolonged closure would severely disrupt crude exports from Gulf states and trigger massive shocks to global energy supply. It was precisely this latent risk that caused international oil prices to soar during the conflict. Yet beginning in November, market expectations about further escalation began shifting. On November 9, President Trump stated at the White House that, from a military standpoint, the Iran operation had effectively concluded, and the U.S. was currently focused on maintaining the status quo. He stressed that U.S. forces remained ready to act at any moment—but added that the likelihood of renewed military strikes was quite low if diplomatic efforts made progress. That same day, Trump met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed and said they held in-depth discussions on the Iran issue, noting that positive momentum toward ending the conflict was emerging. Qatar has played a pivotal mediating role in this conflict, and its active involvement has further bolstered market optimism about a diplomatic resolution. Of course, Trump’s remarks do not signify formal termination of the war. Iran denies any substantive negotiations are underway, ship attacks near the Strait of Hormuz continue, and regional security remains far from fully restored. But for financial markets, what matters most is not whether the war has truly ended—but rather, how probable further escalation has become.

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Oil Gains After Two-Day Drop With Focus on US-Iran War Outlook

Oil Gains After Two-Day Drop With Focus on US-Iran War Outlook

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