Even if the U.S. is powerful, it cannot force the world to buy more natural gas through 'coercive buying and selling'.

Trump’s tariff policy has ironically tripped up his energy ambitions April 22, 2025 For countries worried that their trade surplus with the U.S. might provoke retaliatory tariffs, Donald Trump offered a 'solution': buy American energy. This month, Trump publicly stated that the U.S. trade deficit with the European Union could be 'quickly and easily' eliminated if the EU purchased large quantities of U.S. goods. He and his cabinet officials have also repeatedly pressured other allies—including India and the Philippines—to significantly increase their purchases of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent personally lobbied Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to invest in a major LNG project in Alaska and pledged that they would purchase a 'substantial share' of its output. At first glance, this appears to be a sound deal. Over the past decade, the U.S. LNG industry has expanded rapidly, making the United States now the world’s largest natural gas producer and exporter. To further boost industry growth, the Trump administration has implemented a series of deregulatory measures—including scrapping the Biden-era fee on methane emissions from oil and gas extraction. Methane, after all, is a potent greenhouse gas. Ironically, however, Trump’s own economic and foreign policies may become the greatest obstacle to his energy ambitions. Against the backdrop of the China–U.S. trade war, U.S. natural gas companies have indeed spotted an opportunity. Mike Sabel, CEO of U.S. LNG company Venture Global, pointed out that expanding LNG exports is one of the most effective ways to reduce the U.S. trade deficit. Although the company’s initial public offering (IPO) in January performed poorly, its recent situation has improved: on April 15, its subsidiary successfully issued $2.5 billion in high-yield bonds—the first such financing completed in the U.S. market since market turmoil erupted on April 2 following Trump’s tariff remarks. America’s allies are also sending positive signals. The European Commission plans to release, in early May, a roadmap for gradually phasing out dependence on Russian natural gas; leaders of multiple European countries support replacing Russian gas with U.S. LNG. India is considering eliminating import tariffs on U.S. LNG. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba revealed that Japan may consider investing in the Alaska project. Yet scaling up LNG exports significantly remains no easy task. First, U.S. infrastructure remains inadequate to substantially expand exports in the short term. 'We have the gas—but the problem is the lack of pipelines to get it out.'

Looking back at 2024 and ahead to 2025: What lies ahead for the international oil and gas market?

Pessimistic expectations regarding oil demand are the most important factor driving down international oil prices. In 2024, the global economic recovery remained sluggish. Multiple international institutions—including the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)—projected that global oil demand growth in 2024 would fall below 1 million barrels per day (bpd), far lower than the over-2-million-bpd growth recorded in 2023. In its December Oil Market Report, the IEA noted that oil demand growth in emerging and developing economies—including China, Nigeria, Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa, and Argentina—slowed sharply in 2024, leading markets to broadly anticipate weak fundamentals; oil demand in non-OECD countries grew by only 320,000 bpd year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024—the lowest quarterly growth since the pandemic peak. Even OPEC—the traditionally most optimistic institution—has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 for five consecutive months. Given the underwhelming demand outlook, international oil prices have struggled to stabilize at high levels. 'OPEC+' repeatedly postponed its plan to phase out production cuts: initially announcing in June that it would gradually increase oil output starting in October, with an expected daily increase of 2.2 million barrels—roughly 2% of global supply. Subsequently, however, the group decided in September, November, and December to extend the production cuts further, aiming to support oil market stability. Nevertheless, as output continues rising steadily in non-OPEC+ producers—including the United States, Brazil, and Guyana—the global oil supply remains ample, and expectations of oversupply have gradually intensified. The IEA pointed out that even if OPEC+ does not lift its production cuts, global oil supply will still grow by 630,000 bpd in 2024. It should be noted that although geopolitical conflicts—including the Russia–Ukraine war, the Israel–Hamas war, and the 'Red Sea crisis'—persisted throughout 2024, they did not deliver significant shocks to the oil market’s fundamentals. Concerns over the security of global oil supply chains and shipping routes have gradually eased. Consequently, geopolitical factors have provided very limited support to international oil prices. Oil and gas investment continues its recovery; industry consolidation accelerates once again Amid the 'blade-like mountains' of southern Tianshan, drilling rigs roar as they push ever deeper into Earth’s crust. Photo by Tan Hui In 2024, global energy security pressures eased somewhat, yet ensuring energy security remains a top priority for many countries—and many oil companies have placed renewed emphasis on oil and gas operations. Against this backdrop, global oil and gas investment maintained its recovery trend. According to the IEA’s World Energy Investment Report, upstream oil and gas investment worldwide is projected to reach approximately $570 billion in 2024—a 7% increase over 2023; investment in 2023 itself had grown by 9%.

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