Energy Investment Boom Amid Middle East Crisis: Three Consecutive Years of Declining Oil Investment, Dawn of the Electricity Era

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), stated that markets are currently experiencing the largest energy security crisis in history. Both producing and consuming countries are intensifying efforts to diversify trade routes and energy sources: on one hand, accelerating construction of new pipelines and other supply infrastructure; on the other, increasing utilization of domestic resources—including renewables, nuclear power, and fossil fuels. Caption: IEA releases World Energy Investment 2026 01 Three-Year Decline in Oil Investment; Natural Gas and Coal Investments Hit Record Highs Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in mid-February, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and mutual attacks on energy infrastructure by warring parties have triggered an unexpectedly sharp rise in oil prices. As of now, international oil prices remain above $90 per barrel. Even amid rising oil prices, uncertainty over how long high prices will persist, long project lead times, and tight supply in the offshore drilling rig market continue to constrain short-term growth in upstream oil investment outside the Middle East. Globally, oil companies’ investment in 2026 will decline for the third consecutive year, with projected spending this year falling short of $500 billion. The report identifies two main reasons for this year’s drop in oil investment: first, ongoing conflict has led to downward revisions in oil investment in the Middle East—significantly reducing export revenues for producing countries such as Iraq and Kuwait and delaying certain projects; second, outside the Middle East, short-term investment remains hampered by long project cycles, infrastructure bottlenecks, and depletion of exploration portfolios. In contrast, natural gas presents a far more favorable development outlook. Driven by large-scale liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects in the United States and Qatar, global natural gas supply-related expenditure is expected to climb to $330 billion this year—the highest level in a decade. The surge in natural gas investment is propelled by rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and data centers: in 2025, global orders for newly built gas-fired power plants surged to 130 gigawatts—the highest in 25 years. Among these, U.S. LNG project expansion is one of the primary drivers behind global natural gas investment growth. In 2025, orders for newly built natural gas power plants in the United States reached the highest level in 25 years—largely driven by surging energy demand from data centers. Moreover, stagnation at the Strait of Hormuz has reignited global interest in coal. From Asia to Europe, numerous countries have begun restarting coal-fired power generation. The IEA forecasts that coal investment this year will reach $18 billion—the highest in 14 years—primarily driven by China and India. Analysts note that coal now serves as a “buffer fuel”: unlike LNG, it is insulated from geopolitical risks and functions as a hedging instrument. So long as the conflict persists and the Strait remains closed, coal will fill this gap. Caption: Global energy investment is set to reach $3.4 trillion this year 02 Strategic Status of Renewables and Nuclear Power Enhanced Historically, every major geopolitical conflict prompts relevant countries to reassess their national energy security strategies. This Middle East crisis is rendering the global energy security landscape increasingly complex, with countries simultaneously pursuing diversified fuels and technologies. Against this backdrop, the strategic importance of renewable energy has been reaffirmed.

Chevron and Cheniere Energy Express Confidence in Natural Gas Demand

U.S. energy giant Chevron Corporation and mid-sized firm Cheniere Energy have both expressed strong confidence in natural gas demand. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated that he expects natural gas demand to exceed expectations, driven by surging electricity consumption from major technology companies. Speaking on Monday in an interview with CNBC, Wirth noted that although the natural gas market is evolving rapidly—and thus difficult to predict—he anticipates that soaring electricity demand from AI and data centers, coupled with the electrification of U.S. vehicle fleets and manufacturing, will stimulate global natural gas demand. He predicted that global natural gas demand “could be higher than people have estimated so far.” Chevron relies on the fact that wind and solar power still lack sufficient capacity to meet peak demand, given their dependence on weather conditions. Wirth told CNBC: “Data centers don’t shut down when the sun goes down. We need reliable baseload power to serve all these demands. I believe natural gas will be a crucial component of the energy equation going forward.” Meanwhile, Cheniere Energy—the largest U.S. LNG producer—foresees robust future global demand for natural gas and an imminent wave of supply.

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