From the perspective of court litigation trends, what decarbonization pressures are major petrochemical giants like ExxonMobil and Shell facing? Could an 'ecocide crime' be introduced?

I. The number of lawsuits filed against carbon-intensive enterprises has surged dramatically—and geographically, the focus is shifting from Europe and the U.S. to new regions. In the coming years, climate-related litigation against major international oil companies is expected to grow exponentially. Analysts liken this trend to the wave of lawsuits once leveled against the tobacco industry. Earlier this year, on the last day of May, the District Court of The Hague in the Netherlands ordered Royal Dutch Shell to set binding emissions-reduction targets. The court ruled that Shell bears responsibility not only for its own carbon emissions but also for those generated by its suppliers. A Shell spokesperson stated at the time that the company would appeal the court’s “disappointing” decision. This ruling is considered historic—the first ever to impose a legal obligation on a corporation to align its policies with the Paris Agreement—marking a watershed moment in climate litigation. Shell’s courtroom defeat signals a likely surge in climate lawsuits targeting high-emission enterprises. As early as January 26, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) reported that climate-related lawsuits worldwide had nearly doubled over the previous three years. Courts’ growing influence in climate action is increasingly pressuring governments and corporations to fulfill their climate commitments and set more ambitious goals for both mitigation and adaptation. A joint report released by UNEP and Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law shows that in 2017, there were at least 884 climate-related judicial cases globally, spanning 24 countries. By 2020, the number had risen to 1,550 cases, involving 38 countries plus the Court of Justice of the European Union—a total of 39 judicial entities. Not only did case numbers nearly double, but plaintiffs’ success rates also rose steadily. Since the turn of the century, over 2,000 climate lawsuits have been filed. From 2000 onward, the U.S. and the EU accounted for 90% of such litigation. Yet cases are now expanding into new jurisdictions—including Argentina, South Africa, and India. This signals that carbon-intensive enterprises worldwide will face mounting pressure. II. The EU introduces a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) To meet its newly established emissions targets while helping domestic firms compete fairly against foreign rivals unbound by climate regulations, the EU launched the world’s first carbon border tax policy. On July 14, the EU formally unveiled its CBAM, imposing tariffs on carbon-intensive imported goods—including iron, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, and electricity—as part of its broader strategy to achieve its updated climate goals.

A €100-million carbon credit fraud scandal has rocked Europe—multiple Chinese projects implicated.

As the investigation widened, Bloomberg journalists discovered that—not only Germany—but at least nine other European countries had purchased carbon credits from projects exhibiting similar irregularities. Investigators first reviewed project documentation registered in Austria, Poland, Luxembourg, and other countries. The documents indicated that certain projects located at China’s Changqing Oilfield claimed to have avoided nearly 120,000 tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions and provided precise site coordinates. Last November, Bloomberg reporters traveled to the Loess Plateau region of northwestern China to visit the Changqing Oilfield sites using those coordinates. Yet they found that the first coordinate pointed to a site still under development—with no emission-reduction equipment installed onsite. The second coordinate led to an office building; five minutes later, reporters located a large oil-and-gas processing facility nearby—but it housed only storage tanks and LPG cylinders, with no gas compressors or gas recovery systems visible. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) subsequently analyzed drone footage and satellite imagery—and found no clear evidence indicating installation of emission-control equipment at these sites. Similar findings emerged in Dongying, Shandong Province. Between 2020 and 2022, a natural gas capture and emission-reduction project at China’s Shengli Oilfield in Shandong sold carbon credits to companies in the UK, Austria, and Poland. Yet when Bloomberg reporters visited the site in Dongying City, Shandong Province, they observed no trace of natural gas capture infrastructure. BNEF’s visual analysis revealed only belt-driven oil pumps, steel cylinders used for liquid recovery, and a flare tower—designed for burning off gas, not capturing it. Thus, analysts concluded the likelihood of the project having installed necessary environmental equipment was extremely low: it would be highly improbable for a company to invest in such infrastructure only to dismantle it shortly thereafter. Although carbon credit units designed under Germany’s scheme have since been revoked, the companies and individuals behind these projects are unlikely to face any legal consequences. All purchasing companies—including BP, EDF, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies—face no fines, even if emissions reductions were falsely claimed. A spokesperson for the German Customs Authority explained this is because the carbon offsets were purchased in good faith—that is, in accordance with how the system was originally designed to operate. That naturally raises the question: What kind of carbon credit “system design” left such glaring loopholes? Originally, the EU’s UER (Union Emissions Reduction) carbon credit system was created to help energy companies achieve upstream emissions reductions, thereby meeting the EU’s Fuel Quality Directive target of reducing the greenhouse gas intensity of transport fuels by 6% relative to 2010 levels by 2020. The system permitted companies to generate carbon credits from emission-reduction projects implemented during fossil fuel extraction. Each credit represented one tonne of CO₂ emissions avoided or reduced. Since its launch in 2015, approximately 180 projects registered under the UER mechanism. In 2022 alone, 15 EU member states collectively reported offsetting 5.9 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions through UER credits. Yet in practice, as an early experiment in carbon markets, the UER mechanism gradually exposed serious flaws.

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