Oil and gas production increased by 18%! Major oil companies are dropping the act!

Meanwhile, ExxonMobil has set a target to increase its total oil and natural gas production to 5.4 million barrels per day by 2030—approximately an 18% increase from its current level of 4.58 million barrels per day. According to ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods, the increased project spending is expected to generate returns exceeding 30% over the investment lifecycle. 01. Betting Big on Guyana & the Permian Basin ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods stated: “By 2030, we plan to deploy approximately $140 billion across major projects and our Permian Basin development program.” He added that this capital is expected to deliver returns exceeding 30% over its investment horizon. According to the announcement, ExxonMobil continues to strengthen its upstream advantaged asset portfolio to achieve lower supply costs and higher returns, while also signaling accelerated business growth through integration. CEO Darren Woods affirmed that mergers and acquisitions (M&A) remain a key lever for accelerating business growth, adding: “In my view, our continuously growing advantages open the door to M&A opportunities.” Indeed, M&A-driven growth is already evident. Following the acquisition and integration of Pioneer, ExxonMobil expects to realize over $3 billion in annual synergies—more than 50% higher than previously anticipated. Through the Pioneer acquisition, ExxonMobil achieved its goal of having advantaged assets (the Permian Basin, Guyana, and LNG) account for over 50% of its total upstream production—three years ahead of schedule. By 2030, over 60% of the company’s production is projected to come from these advantaged assets. Moreover, Guyana—as one of its core advantaged assets—is expected to contribute the majority of future production growth. The company forecasts Guyana’s total production will reach 1.3 million barrels per day by 2030. In November last year, ExxonMobil announced that cumulative oil production from the Stabroek Block in Guyana had reached 500 million barrels since production began in 2019. According to the company, the first three projects—Liza Phase 1, Liza Phase 2, and Payara—have already achieved output exceeding 650,000 barrels per day. ExxonMobil also announced plans to develop two additional projects in Guyana—Hammerhead and Longtail—bringing the total number of development projects in the block to eight by 2030. Based on current investment plans and projections by ExxonMobil and its partners, total production from the Stabroek Block is expected to reach 1.3 million barrels per day by 2030, with future total production capacity in Guyana projected to reach 1.7 million barrels per day. As another key advantaged asset, ExxonMobil has four world-class liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects under development, with annual LNG sales expected to exceed 40 million tonnes by 2030. 02. Balancing Opportunity and Risk Although ExxonMobil clearly prioritizes increasing oil and gas production, the company also stated it will pursue up to $30 billion in low-emission opportunities between 2025 and 2030—nearly 65% of which will be dedicated to helping third-party customers reduce emissions.

How is ExxonMobil doing?

Downstream business. Regarding energy products, ExxonMobil projected adjusted net income of approximately $4.0–4.8 billion in its 8-K filing (midpoint: ~$4.4 billion), compared with Jefferies’ forecast of ~$4.6 billion. Guidance for the energy products business indicates quarterly earnings will rise to approximately $2.0–2.4 billion—a reasonable expectation given tightening fundamentals in refined product markets. This segment also benefits from timing effects totaling approximately $2.2–3.0 billion, reflecting a decline in product prices at quarter-end; by contrast, timing-effect losses in Q1 2026 amounted to $3.4 billion. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to exert negative pressure, resulting in estimated losses of $400–200 million; additionally, conflict-related expenses—including hedging, physical supply disruptions, and others—are expected to cause further losses of $300–100 million. ExxonMobil also recorded asset impairments of approximately $1.0–0.8 billion. Adjusted earnings for the chemicals business are projected at $0.9–1.5 billion (midpoint: $1.2 billion), supported by stronger margins; our forecast for this figure stands at ~$1.3 billion. Similarly, for specialty products, ExxonMobil expects earnings of $0.6–1.2 billion (midpoint: $0.9 billion), again driven by improved margins; our forecast aligns closely at ~$0.9 billion. Although ExxonMobil trades at a valuation premium relative to peers across most metrics, in our view its returns, growth profile, balance sheet strength, and liquidity—particularly the latter—are robust enough to justify this premium. Even amid a commodity spot-price premium environment and downstream earnings below market expectations, cash flow growth guidance remains achievable, driven by cost reductions and portfolio optimization upgrades. Given ExxonMobil’s scale and downstream footprint, its energy transition strategy is credible. On Tuesday, July 14, we hosted Mr. Darren Woods, Chairman and CEO of ExxonMobil, to discuss key strategic initiatives. Key discussion topics included: (1) business growth and technological advancements in the Permian Basin; (2) exploration opportunities; (3) M&A strategy; and (4) downstream profitability outlook. Following the meeting, we hold a relatively optimistic view of the company’s upstream segment, as management continues leveraging proprietary technologies to unlock value—especially in the Permian Basin. We also maintain a positive outlook on its refining business, expecting it to support earnings. Looking ahead, we will continue closely monitoring upstream production performance, external growth opportunities, structural cost reductions, and developments in the LNG business. For further details, please refer to the sections below. In the upstream segment, the company highlighted operational execution—particularly progress in the Permian Basin and Guyana—as well as ongoing exploration activities. In the Permian Basin, the company reaffirmed its long-term production targets and emphasized the core advantage of its proprietary technologies—including continued deployment of lightweight proppants. In Guyana, ExxonMobil underscored exceptional operational execution, as well as efforts to optimize reservoirs and develop additional blocks constrained by force majeure events.

Exxon Plans $100 Billion in Capex Through 2030, CEO Tells CNBC

1 day ago

ExxonMobil announced a $100 billion capital expenditure plan through 2030 to augment global energy supplies amid record quarterly profits. CEO Darren Woods emphasized the necessity of continued investment to address fuel supply shortages driven by geopolitical conflicts.

bloomberg

2026-10-30

Exxon Plans $100 Billion in Capex Through 2030, CEO Tells CNBC

Exxon Plans $100 Billion in Capex Through 2030, CEO Tells CNBC

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