Geely's 'Financial Skills' | Geely-Volvo 'Fission'

After the restructuring, Geely will not only hold 100% of Volvo Cars but also bring brands such as Lynk & Co and Polestar into the new automotive group. Based on 2019 sales volume and market capitalization estimates, the combined entity would achieve approximately 2.22 million vehicles in annual sales and a market capitalization of around USD 35 billion—comparable to Ford Motor Company’s USD 36.32 billion market cap, which ranked ninth globally among automakers that year. If the merger successfully lists, Geely Automobile’s market capitalization could very likely surpass SAIC Motor Corporation’s, making it China’s most valuable automotive group. Let us first revisit the situation a decade ago. Amid widespread skepticism, Geely acquired the struggling Volvo Cars from Ford for USD 1.8 billion plus USD 0.9 billion in assumed debt. At the time, Geely’s revenue barely exceeded RMB 20 billion—less than one-quarter of Volvo Cars’ SEK 11.3 billion (approximately RMB 8.22 billion) in revenue. Geely’s 2010 acquisition of Volvo was made possible through a leveraged buyout—a seemingly miraculous 'snake swallowing an elephant' maneuver. Its mastery of financial engineering originated from its initial listing in Hong Kong via the shell company resources of China Resources Holdings, controlled by Anhui native He Xingchu. This experience revealed to Geely the critical importance of capital operations. Deep involvement by Rothschild & Co., the French financial advisory firm, further ensured the deal’s success and marked Geely’s advancement in financial expertise. Using such leverage, Geely disrupted the entrenched structure of the global auto industry and continuously expanded. During this growth, Geely also tapped into local government financing platforms, giving itself 'golden wings.' Though leveraging external support, Geely did so not by leaning on government 'crutches,' but through equal, mutually beneficial, and deeply collaborative partnerships—transforming 'crutches' into 'golden wings.' This is precisely where Geely outshines all other domestic brands. Within just ten years, Geely has grown into the leading indigenous automotive brand in China, turning what once seemed like a 'fairy tale' into a legendary success story. So why merge with Volvo and list jointly? Because Geely fully understands that this 'Geely-Volvo' merger would yield deep operational synergies—greater than the sum of its parts—and deliver equally powerful capital-market benefits: 1 + 1 > 2. Geely’s historical stock price reflects three distinct phases of its capital operations. From 2008 to March 29, 2010—the date Geely completed its 100% acquisition of Volvo—its share price surged dramatically, coinciding with China’s A-share bull market. Thereafter, Geely’s stock entered a six-year period of wide-ranging volatility, until late 2015 and early 2016, when it began surging again—driven by explosive growth in revenue and profits following 2014. However, Geely’s 2018 revenue growth slowed to 14.91%, and net profit growth decelerated to 18.05%; both metrics continued to ease through 2019, dragging the stock price downward. From a price perspective, three days after the merger announcement, on February 12, Geely Automobile closed at HKD 135.48 billion (approx. RMB 120 billion), far below its peak near HKD 270 billion in early 2018. On April 1, amid pandemic-related pressures, the market cap plunged further to HKD 99.77 billion. So, can the merger with Volvo provide fresh narrative momentum to support the stock price—and open up greater room for investor imagination?

U.S. Stock Tracking – July 1, 2020

The company generated no total revenue over the past year; net losses have narrowed annually; cash on hand has declined slightly quarter-on-quarter; and deferred revenue remains minimal and largely current. Its stock hit a low of RMB 0.35 on March 20, 2020, and rose to a high of RMB 4.11 on June 17. On July 2, it opened down 0.45%, dipped further to −0.89%, then rebounded sharply to close up 7.73%—settling at a gain of 7.27%. Turnover stood at 2.81%. Market capitalization was marginally higher than enterprise value. Twenty-two institutions held shares, accounting for 23.99% of total shares outstanding. No analyst recommendations were available. Caution is advised for momentum-chasing investors. DNB (Dun & Bradstreet Holdings, Inc.) A provider of business decision data and analytics across North America and globally, founded in 1841 and headquartered in Short Hills, New Jersey. The company offers financial and risk solutions, including: • D&B Finance Analytics: an online application delivering real-time access to information, comprehensive portfolio monitoring, and analytical capabilities; • D&B Direct: an API integrating risk and financial data directly into enterprise applications for real-time credit decisions; • D&B Credit: enabling small- and medium-sized enterprises to monitor and build their business credit profiles; • D&B Enterprise Risk Assessment Manager: automating and managing credit decisions and reporting; • Risk and compliance solutions, including: – D&B Compass: a cloud-based workflow management solution; – D&B Supplier Risk Manager: providing insights to certify, monitor, analyze, and mitigate supply-chain risks; – D&B Onboard: delivering comprehensive business intelligence to facilitate global KYC/AML compliance and minimize financial, legal, and reputational risks; – D&B Beneficial Ownership: delivering risk intelligence on ultimate beneficial ownership; • Sales and marketing solutions, including: – D&B Optimizer: an integrated data management solution; – D&B Master Data: enhancing understanding of business relationships and leveraging organizational intelligence; – D&B Hoovers: a sales intelligence solution; – D&B Lattice: a customer data platform; – D&B Target Audience: helping clients reach the right audience with the right message; – D&B Visitor Intelligence: converting website visitors into qualified leads; – D&B Direct: delivering valuable customer insights via API to CRM, marketing automation, and on-demand business intelligence applications. In 2019, the company’s total revenue declined by one-fifth year-on-year, and net income turned negative. In Q1 2020, performance improved modestly. Cash on hand increased, while both current and non-current deferred revenue rose compared to the prior period. The stock peaked at USD 144.99 on February 7, 2019, and bottomed at USD 24.25 on July 1, 2020. On July 2, it opened down 0.2%, fell further to −1.38%, then rallied to close up 8.88%—settling at a gain of 6.9%. Turnover was 1.64%. Market capitalization remained below enterprise value. No institutional holdings were reported, and no analyst forecasts were available. The company was suspended from trading between February 8, 2019, and June 30, 2020. Investors may monitor developments—but should proceed with caution.

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