What are the two main opposing risks Goldman Sachs identifies for its 2026 oil price outlook, and what specific developments drive each risk?

Goldman Sachs identifies both upside and downside risks to its 2026 oil price forecasts (Brent at $83/bbl, WTI at $78/bbl), driven primarily by evolving Middle East dynamics. The biggest upside risk stems from reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz—currently at just 10% of normal levels (2.1 million bpd)—amplified by the U.S. Navy’s newly announced blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas, which has disrupted Iran-associated tankers that accounted for most recent Hormuz flows. Conversely, the main downside risk arises from lower-than-expected Middle East production cuts: Goldman estimates only 8 million bpd of crude production shut-ins in the Persian Gulf in March—aligned with OPEC Secondary Sources but below the IEA’s 10 million bpd estimate—and further downward pressure is coming from the announcement of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and rising prospects of a near-term peace deal, which eases the geopolitical risk premium.

How does Goldman Sachs explain the recent slowdown in global visible oil inventory draws, and what demand trends support this observation?

Goldman Sachs attributes the marked slowdown in global visible oil inventory draws—from roughly 7 million bpd on a month-to-date basis to about 2 million bpd over the past week—to either a growing share of inventory draws occurring in landed product stocks across non-OECD Asia or accelerating demand losses. Supporting the latter possibility, the bank estimates naphtha demand in April will likely fall by approximately 1.3 million bpd compared to February levels, and jet fuel demand is expected to be about 0.5 million bpd below its trend.

Goldman Sachs flags two-way risks to its 2026 oil price outlook

Apr 15, 2026

Goldman Sachs revised its 2026 crude oil price forecast to $83/$78 per barrel, citing Middle East geopolitical risks and supply dynamics. Upside risks include potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions, while downside pressures stem from ceasefire prospects and slowing inventory draws.

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