According to the Reuters poll, how have economists revised their inflation and growth forecasts for major economies amid the ongoing Middle East war?

Economists in the Reuters poll (conducted June 29–July 27) raised inflation forecasts for 39 of 50 major economies for this year compared with April, and cut growth forecasts for 32 of them; for next year, inflation forecasts were upgraded for 37 economies, while growth forecasts were downgraded for only 21. Many cited the war’s impact, including surging oil prices—crude briefly exceeded $100 a barrel and remains over 20% higher than pre-war levels—and its stagflationary effects.

What role is AI-related investment playing in sustaining global growth expectations despite rising inflation concerns?

AI-related spending worth hundreds of billions of dollars is helping a handful of economies grow strongly and has kept global growth forecasts steady across multiple quarterly surveys, with the median forecast unchanged at 2.9% for this year and 3.1% for 2027; growth forecasts for the U.S. (2.2%) and China (4.6%)—the two biggest economies leading the AI investment boom—were unchanged from April, and South Korea and Taiwan led GDP forecast upgrades for 2026 due to AI-driven investment.

Persistently High Inflation to Nag Global Economy, Say Economists: Reuters Poll

Jul 28, 2026

A Reuters poll of nearly 500 economists raises inflation forecasts for 39 major economies due to Middle East hostilities pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, while cutting growth views.

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