Why did Goldman Sachs raise its oil price forecast again, and what are the key factors driving this upward revision?

Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast again due to 'net upside risks' to prices, including 'abnormally high refined product prices', 'product shortage risks', and an 'unprecedented scale of shock'—with economic risks exceeding the baseline scenario. The bank stated that this shock has already begun disrupting oil demand, projecting a global demand reduction of 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for the current quarter and a decline of approximately 100,000 bpd in full-year 2026 demand compared to 2025. It also estimated that Middle East oil production losses had reached 14.5 million bpd as of April.

What does ING’s analysis suggest about the current tightness in the oil market and the implications of stalled U.S.–Iran talks?

According to ING’s commodities analysts, the lack of progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations means the oil market is tightening daily, with 'almost no alternatives' available to fill the roughly 13 million bpd supply gap; consequently, 'oil prices are being repriced at higher levels'. They noted that while short-term inventories can partially offset the shortfall, prolonged crisis conditions will require further price increases to induce demand destruction.

Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast Again

May 6, 2026

Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecasts to $90 for Brent and $83 for WTI amid reports of significant Middle East supply disruptions. Analysts warn of tightening markets and potential demand destruction if geopolitical tensions escalate.

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