What are the main geopolitical factors driving the expected rise in oil prices according to the Reuters poll?

According to the Reuters poll, the main geopolitical factors driving the expected rise in oil prices are shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February and has sharply reduced traffic through this critical chokepoint carrying about a fifth of global crude oil and natural gas—and ongoing Houthi militia attacks in the Red Sea, which have disrupted shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, creating a second major bottleneck for oil flows. These disruptions heighten supply risks and sustain a geopolitical risk premium tied to the Iran conflict, expected to persist through the second half of the year and keep volatility elevated.

What do the latest Reuters poll forecasts show for Brent and U.S. crude oil prices in 2026, and how do they compare to previous estimates?

The July Reuters poll of 31 economists and analysts forecasts Brent crude will average $85.22 a barrel in 2026, up from the June forecast of $84.50, while U.S. crude is projected to average $80.14 a barrel, compared with June’s estimate of $79.49; year-to-date, the benchmarks have averaged $87.03 (Brent) and $82.41 (U.S. crude), respectively.

Oil prices seen gaining as Middle East supply disruptions persist: Reuters poll

Jul 31, 2026

A Reuters poll forecasts Brent crude averaging $85.22 in 2026 due to Middle East supply disruptions. Demand growth is expected to fall while OPEC+ may pause output increases amid persistent geopolitical risks.

reuters

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