What are Goldman Sachs' updated oil price forecasts for Q4, and what is the primary reason cited for the upward revision?

Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter to $90 a barrel for Brent crude and $83 a barrel for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), citing lower output from the Middle East as the primary driver. The firm attributes this supply shortfall to disruptions affecting Gulf exports and production, leading to unprecedented inventory draws and heightened price pressures.

According to Goldman Sachs, how is the global oil market balance projected to shift between 2025 and Q2 2026, and what underlies this dramatic change?

Goldman Sachs expects the global oil market to swing from a 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) surplus in 2025 to a 9.6 million bpd deficit in Q2 2026, driven by an estimated 14.5 million bpd of Middle East crude production losses that are causing record inventory draws of 11–12 million bpd in April. This severe supply shock — combined with expectations of falling demand (down 1.7 million bpd in Q2 and 100,000 bpd in 2026 year-on-year due to surging refined product prices) — underpins the forecasted imbalance, with analysts warning that even sharper demand destruction may be needed if the supply disruption persists.

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Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 oil price forecasts to $90 per barrel for Brent crude due to reduced Middle East output. Analysts project a shift from surplus to deficit by Q2 2026 amid record inventory draws.

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