According to the IMF, how is AI helping to offset the economic impact of the Middle East war, and which countries are benefiting most?

The IMF states that the 'boom in artificial intelligence helped offset the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East,' calling it a 'positive surprise' concentrated in Asia among economies plugged into the AI supply chain—specifically naming South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Taiwan. South Korea's economy grew at an annualized 7.5% in Q1—more than four times its April projection of 1.8%—'despite its heavy reliance on imported energy from the Middle East'; Thailand's growth forecast was revised up to 1.9% from 1.5% due to 'robust technology-related exports and investment'; Malaysia will benefit from a 'data center boost'; and Taiwan also 'outpaced expectations' amid booming demand for AI-related equipment.

What does the IMF say about global growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, and how do they compare to previous projections?

The IMF expects global growth of 3% in 2026, slightly down from the 3.1% predicted in April and a slowdown from the 3.5% average over the previous two years; meanwhile, it raised its 2027 growth outlook to 3.4% from 3.2% in April. The report notes that the global economy 'has, so far, weathered the shock from the war better than feared,' but warns that progress on inflation has stalled and risks remain 'tilted to the downside,' citing renewed Middle East tensions, trade fragmentation, and potential 'unraveling of AI-driven expectations.'

IMF Says AI to Help Offset War-Driven Slowdown But Risks Remain

Jul 8, 2026

The IMF maintained its global growth forecast, noting AI offsets war fallout, but warned that stalled inflation and Middle East tensions could reignite commodity price volatility, impacting energy and food costs.

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