Canada's Liberal Party wins election; Alberta pushes for independence

In 2007, the province’s per capita GDP stood at CAD $74,825—61% higher than the national average—and Alberta remained Canada’s strongest-performing economy. As such, economically robust Alberta has consistently run budget surpluses and contributed annually to the federal government’s finances, effectively serving as Canada’s ‘wallet.’ According to economist Trevor Tombe, since 1961 Alberta’s net contribution to Canada has totaled CAD $622 billion—roughly 5% of its cumulative economic activity—or approximately CAD $3,344 per person per year in 2021. Data from the Canadian Taxpayers Federation (CTF) shows that since 1957, fiscal equalization has cost Albertans CAD $67 billion—CAD $20,200 per person. Yet despite Alberta’s sustained financial transfers to Ottawa, the federal Liberal government has neither acknowledged nor supported the province. On the contrary, under Prime Minister Trudeau’s leadership, Alberta’s oil- and gas-rich economy suffered unprecedented damage. Over the past decade, the Trudeau government aggressively pursued extreme environmental policies to achieve a low-carbon economy and meet its ‘net-zero emissions’ target. To this end, it introduced a nationwide carbon pricing framework, imposing carbon taxes on fossil fuel production and consumption to incentivize emission reductions—yet significantly raising operating costs for the petrochemical energy sector. The Liberals reformed the environmental assessment process: in 2019, they enacted the Impact Assessment Act, tightening scrutiny over new oil-and-gas projects. Stringent project approvals have left Canada’s oil industry struggling. Simultaneously, the Trudeau government pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2030, and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. These ‘Green New Deal’ initiatives have delivered a devastating blow to Alberta’s energy sector. Alberta views the Liberals’ environmental policies and carbon tax as grave threats to its petroleum-based economy. Economic stagnation and persistently high unemployment following these policy constraints have further inflamed provincial opposition. The Alberta government has repeatedly accused Ottawa of ignoring Western economic interests—intensifying separatist sentiment within the province. Premier Danielle Smith stated: ‘Hockey and nostalgia’ are not enough to hold us together; sentiment cannot pay real bills, nor sustain Canadian unity.’ By pursuing radical environmental policies, the Liberal government has placed Alberta’s energy industry under severe strain. Projections indicate Alberta’s economic growth will slow to 1.8% in 2025 and further decelerate to 1.7% in 2026. ‘Blessed with natural resources’ and economically strong, Alberta is nonetheless gradually declining under far-left policies. Man-made calamity outweighs natural disaster—a cause for deep lament. Second, accumulated cultural and historical grievances: There is a pronounced ideological clash between Alberta’s conservative ethos and the Liberal government’s progressive agenda. Alberta residents—especially those in rural areas—possess a strong regional identity rooted in individual liberty, free markets, and traditional conservative values.

[Western Canada Watch] A Brief Review of Alberta’s Budget at a Historic Crossroads

First, hydrogen energy: Alberta boasts the world’s lowest natural gas prices. Its mature oil pipeline infrastructure can transport blue hydrogen, and it possesses well-established carbon capture technology. Of course, all this comes from research reports—I’m no expert. Second, data centers: Establishing data centers hinges primarily on two factors—low land costs and low electricity costs. Both happen to be Alberta’s strengths. Add in tax incentives and a naturally cool climate that enables passive air-cooling, and Alberta sounds like the promised land for data centers. That said, these investments remain in their infancy. For now, Alberta’s top priority remains maximizing exports of natural gas and oil. Recently, Minister of Energy Jonathan Wilkinson traveled to Europe to promote Canadian natural gas shipments—undoubtedly doing his part to support Alberta’s economy. Canada’s main selling point for natural gas lies in its exceptional geography and political stability—after all, Alberta is highly unlikely to be struck by rockets. Another advantage is net population inflow—particularly among young people. Young workers boost employment, revitalize the real estate market, and broaden the provincial tax base. Many friends around me have already moved to Edmonton. Still, population growth isn’t necessarily all positive. Premier Smith has repeatedly blamed swelling populations for ballooning expenditures. Are rising expenditures truly caused by immigration? An old saying goes: ‘More people aren’t always better—but fewer people are certainly worse.’ In my view, Smith’s blaming immigrants is deeply unfair. Take healthcare: Immigrants undergo mandatory medical examinations before arrival, so they’re unlikely to burden the healthcare system upon entry. The primary driver behind healthcare strain, as Smith claims, is actually the aging Baby Boomer cohort—seniors consume far more healthcare resources than healthy, working-age newcomers. Regarding education: School overcrowding stems not only from new immigrant arrivals but also from Alberta’s own underinvestment and outdated funding formulas. In a province experiencing sustained, rapid net population growth, applying a moving-average funding model inevitably fails to meet demand. Urban schools across Alberta operate under constant pressure—last year, teachers’ unions even went on strike. To blame immigrants entirely for straining a system already walking a tightrope is either grossly ignorant or deliberately malicious. Still, it appears Smith has discovered a playbook previously used by former Premier Jason Kenney. After all, immigration authority rests solely with the federal government. Rather than shoulder the painful costs of provincial transformation, it’s politically expedient to deflect blame onto Ottawa—especially given widespread Western discontent with federal policies. Within the United Conservative Party (UCP), separatist sentiment runs especially deep. The prospect of independence is fading fast. I’m no longer sure whether Smith genuinely wants independence—but from a fiscal perspective, it’s becoming increasingly implausible. Not every province can replicate Quebec’s playbook. At current debt levels, Alberta would—at minimum—need to peg its currency to the Canadian dollar; otherwise, its currency could rapidly devolve into hyperinflationary chaos. Moreover, the Liberals’ recent electoral gains in Alberta, coupled with the federal NDP’s collapse, have forced the left into the Liberal Party’s big tent. Urban middle-class voters increasingly favor Chrystia Freeland’s elite Red Tory approach, while extremist separatists are inadvertently pushing pro-unity voters toward the opposing camp… Frankly, were it not for the UCP’s disproportionately high share of separatists, I suspect Smith would have already capitulated to the unity camp.

Imperial Oil CEO Calls for Alberta to Reject Separatism

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Imperial Oil CEO John Whelan publicly opposed Alberta separatism, emphasizing that national unity ensures stable resource movement and investment. As a major Canadian oil sands producer, the company supports regulatory frameworks aimed at doubling upstream production and expanding downstream biofuels.

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Imperial Oil CEO Calls for Alberta to Reject Separatism

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Imperial Oil CEO Calls for Alberta to Reject Separatism

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