According to ING, what is the expected impact on the US dollar if the Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged?

According to ING, if the Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged, the dollar will come under pressure and follow oil prices downward, as a rate hold would trigger an unwinding of precautionary dollar positioning and allow the dollar to reconnect with the signal from lower oil prices.

What does ING strategist Francesco Pesole identify as the key condition for the dollar to weaken following the Fed's decision?

Francesco Pesole of ING states that unless Fed Chair Kevin Warsh surprises with a hawkish spin or more than two FOMC members dissent in favor of holding rates steady, the dollar will come under pressure — implying that the absence of hawkish rhetoric and limited dissent are the key conditions for dollar weakness.

ING Says Dollar to Take Cue from Oil Prices If Fed Holds Rate

Jul 29, 2026

ING analysts predict the US dollar will fall and track lower oil prices if the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates, following geopolitical disruptions to energy flows and a recent decoupling of currency and crude correlations.

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