What is the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision today, and how is it influenced by recent geopolitical developments?

The market expects no change in interest rates from the Federal Reserve today, with less than a 20% chance of another rate cut this year; this outlook is shaped in part by rising energy prices—driven by geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—which have pushed market inflation expectations over the next one to two years to six-month highs and contributed to a likely hawkish tone in Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance.

Why did U.S. tech stocks retreat recently, and what role did OpenAI play in that movement?

U.S. tech stocks retreated partly due to a report claiming OpenAI missed internal user growth targets, which dented AI-related optimism; although OpenAI pushed back on the report, its central role in the tech transformation and cross-deals with major AI firms like Oracle and CoreWeave were enough to trigger jitters and knock back related stocks.

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Fed Rate Decision Looms as Oil Prices Spike on Geopolitical Tensions

Apr 29, 2026

Crude oil prices spiked above $115 per barrel due to Strait of Hormuz tensions and UAE's OPEC exit, while U.S. markets await the Federal Reserve rate decision. Tech stocks fell on OpenAI concerns, but energy volatility remains dominant.

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