With the Fed raising rates by 92 basis points, gold buyers have instead increased.

Twelve consecutive days of net subscriptions (no net redemptions since 8/29), totaling +68.6 million shares; composition: 5 funds increased, 2 held steady, 0 reduced—incremental inflows driven mainly by HuaAn (+0.082) and the Gold Fund (+0.268). Clarification once again: These are share counts—not AUM. AUM includes price effects; subscription/redemption analysis relies solely on share changes. Moreover, holders are predominantly institutional allocation portfolios; net subscriptions = institutional增持, not 'retail bottom-fishing'. GLD / SLV The East-West divergence pattern has shifted: previously 'West selling, East buying'; this period, Europe’s three major ETFs added 2.53 tonnes in inflows, while U.S. GLD turned from outflows to inflows of 2.86 tonnes. Central Bank Activity ・ China: Added 20.22 tonnes (650,000 troy oz) in August—the 22nd consecutive month—and the largest monthly addition since October 2023; reserves rose to ~2,387 tonnes, with gold’s share of total foreign reserves increasing from 8% in July to ~9%. Monthly pace continues accelerating (March: 160,000 oz → August: 650,000 oz). ・ Global Q2: Net purchases totaled 289 tonnes (up 62% YoY—the strongest Q2 on record). In July, global net purchases stood at 23 tonnes; Russia and Turkey were net sellers during the same period. ・ Czech Republic: +2 tonnes—41st consecutive month of additions. ・ Institutional survey: WGC’s central bank survey found 45% of respondents plan to increase gold holdings over the next 12 months—the highest proportion since the survey launched in 2018. ・ China ETFs: August holdings rose +11 tonnes to 293 tonnes (AUM: USD 42 billion). Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) physical withdrawals totaled 62 tonnes in August (−22% MoM, −27% YoY)—reflecting cooling investment demand alongside weak jewelry demand. Official demand is price-insensitive; jewelry and SGE withdrawals are price-sensitive—this dichotomy explains why gold prices correct but do not collapse. Domestic-International Price Spread (Overnight Session Basis) Primary benchmark: SHFE Au2610 overnight close at CNY 930.00/gram; London gold at USD 4,281.43 (as of 08:02, Sep 16). Conclusion: Near-parity to slight premium; four spread metrics diverge by just 1.3 percentage points → no directional premium. Sources of discrepancy identified: (a) FX basis (PBOC mid-price vs. onshore rate); (b) contract basis (Au2610 front-month at 930.00 vs. SHFE gold main-contract at 934.54). Silver India (monthly data; August figures still pending) ・ Using July data: imports ~USD 4.16 billion / 40–45 tonnes; import duty remains at 15% since May 13 (no reduction). ・ Official August import volume not yet released (expected mid-September) → pending. ・ Key festive calendar: Navratri (early October) → Dhanteras (Nov 6) → Diwali (Nov 8) → wedding season through February 2027. WGC estimates high tariffs will reduce full-year demand by 50–60 tonnes. ・ Discipline reminder: Indian demand provides medium-term support—not daily driver; refrain from forcibly linking it to day-to-day gold price moves.

Live session outline for September 17, 2026: Fed rate hike confirmed; gold breaks below USD 4,255.

Part I: Key Developments Today The Fed announced a 25-basis-point rate hike early this morning, raising the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%–4.00%, with unanimous 12–0 approval. This marks the Fed’s first hike since 2023—and Chair Powell’s first rate increase since assuming leadership. The dot plot shows that 16 of 18 officials expect another hike before year-end; the median year-end rate forecast rose from 3.8% to 4.1%. Gold briefly touched USD 4,367 ahead of the announcement, then plunged sharply post-decision—hitting a low of USD 4,235.10, its weakest level since August 7—and closed at USD 4,264.28, down over 1% on the day. In early Asian trading today, spot gold rebounded briefly above USD 4,280 (+0.44% intraday), yet remains broadly weak. Domestically, gold trades near CNY 930/gram; Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Au9999 spot quote stands at ~CNY 933/gram. > Core takeaway today: The Fed’s rate hike is now fully priced in—and the USD 4,255 threshold (CNY 920 equivalent) has been breached. Markets have already priced in a further hike before year-end, placing near-term pressure on gold. My simulated position has an average entry of USD 4,293; it has shifted from floating loss to deeper floating loss—but no preset action thresholds have yet been triggered. With the decision now official, attention turns to Powell’s upcoming remarks and market digestion of the ‘one more hike this year’ pricing. Part II: Fundamental & Technical Analysis The 25-bps Fed hike aligned with consensus expectations; pre-announcement CME data showed >90% probability. Yet Powell’s press conference tone was notably hawkish. He stressed that the FOMC remains unconvinced inflation is durably trending toward target, expressing dissatisfaction with the pace of recent disinflation—calling current inflation 'too high for too long.' He also explicitly stated, 'We do not provide forward guidance,' signaling unwillingness to telegraph future policy decisions in advance.

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The Federal Reserve raised benchmark rates by 0.25% to curb inflation, signaling further tightening, while oil prices dropped 3% due to increased Saudi crude supplies and regional pipeline attacks.

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