When do most economists now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and what is the main reason for the delay?

Most economists in the April 17–21 Reuters poll expect the Fed to hold rates steady through at least September 2024, with a slim majority (56 of 103) forecasting the benchmark rate will remain in the 3.50%–3.75% range by then — a sharp shift from nearly 70% expecting at least one cut by September in the late-March survey. The primary reason cited is war-related energy shocks from the nearly two-month Middle East conflict, which have driven up fuel prices, reignited inflation pressures, eroded consumer confidence to a record low, and wiped out market pricing for near-term rate cuts.

What do economists forecast for U.S. inflation in 2024, and how does it compare to the Fed’s target?

Economists in the same Reuters poll expect the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — to rise at an annual rate of 3.7% in Q2, 3.4% in Q3, and 3.2% in Q4 2024, about 30 basis points higher than forecasts from late March; these figures represent a second straight upward revision but remain well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Fed rate cut pushed back to late 2026 on war-related inflation risks

Apr 22, 2026

The U.S. Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts due to war-driven energy shocks and soaring fuel prices, with economists forecasting higher inflation expectations and rates remaining steady through September.

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