Goldman Sachs calculates that global crude oil inventories are approaching the critical 100-day threshold, with visible inventories projected to cover only 73 days of demand—what does this mean?

A few months ago, Goldman Sachs was still forecasting that OPEC+ production hikes would push oil prices down to $60 per barrel. Before the conflict, Brent crude had been hovering between $60 and $70. Now? Brent is at $94; WTI is at $91. Half a year ago, Goldman Sachs feared oversupply. Today, the world fears shortage. Japan has been frozen in time—at 1979. Among all the data in this entire episode, this set is the most vivid. On May 21, Japan’s Ministry of Finance announced that crude oil imports in April totaled 4.48 million kiloliters—a year-on-year plunge of 63.7%, the lowest monthly figure since 1979. 1979—the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the outbreak of the Second Oil Crisis. The Strait of Hormuz: the same strait, and once again, crisis. Forty-seven years later, Japan has stepped into the same pit—same strait, same month, same country. Middle Eastern crude imports fell even more sharply: down 67.2% year-on-year. LNG imports plunged 76.1%; gasoline imports plummeted 79.4%. Import prices? A new record high. Volumes dropped by 60%; prices shattered records. Supplies simply vanished from the market. Japan urgently pivoted to the U.S.—crude imports from America rose 38.8% in April. But American oil routes are long, shipping schedules delayed—substitution effects remain limited. An island nation dependent on imports for 99% of its oil. The noose around its neck hasn’t loosened—in 47 years. In 1979, the Iranian Islamic Revolution choked off the Strait of Hormuz, collapsing Japan’s oil imports. Forty-seven years later—same strait, same month, same country. History isn’t repeating; the vulnerability was never fixed. The largest-ever “drop-in-the-bucket” response in 52 years On March 11, the IEA made an unprecedented decision: all 32 member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves onto the market. In its 52-year history, this is the IEA’s largest coordinated release—2.2 times larger than during the 2022 Ukraine crisis. (Source: CCTV News, March 12) A massive move. Then what? Let’s do the math: 400 million barrels, assuming 100 million barrels released per month—roughly 3.3 million barrels per day. The IEA estimates daily supply losses through the Strait of Hormuz at 10.1 million barrels; JPMorgan estimates 16 million; Vitol estimates 12 million. Taking the most conservative figure—10 million barrels per day—the daily release of 3.3 million barrels covers just one-third of the shortfall. Seventy percent is pure air. During the 2022 Ukraine crisis, the global daily oil shortfall was under 3 million barrels. The IEA’s release of 182 million barrels stabilized markets. This time, the shortfall is triple that—but the reserve release is only double. Result? Brent surged from pre-war $60–$70 to $94. It’s not that the IEA didn’t try. This time, the hole is simply too large. II. How the Strait Got Blocked Not by mines—but by insurance Many assume the Strait was blocked by naval mines and warships. No. Mines can be swept; missiles intercepted. What truly locks the Strait shut is insurance. No insurer dares underwrite tankers transiting the war zone. Without insurance, shipowners won’t sail. No sailing means no oil flow. That’s it. Approximately 20 million barrels of crude and refined products normally pass through the Strait daily—accounting for one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Now, only a handful of vessels get through each day. According to WorldPorts, a global port data website, average daily tanker transits in March fell below three—down from 24 before the conflict.

Introduction to the Top Ten Global Commodity Trading Companies

Target Partners Introduction to the Top Ten Global Commodity Trading Companies Futures Magazine ranked the world’s ten largest commodity trading firms. Their combined revenue totals $1.9 trillion, and their total workforce exceeds 526,000 employees. I. Vitol Group Revenue: $231 billion CEO & Managing Director: Russel Hardy Chairman: Ian Taylor Founded: 1966 by Ian Taylor Headquarters: Geneva, Switzerland; Rotterdam, Netherlands Public Listing: Privately held Employees: 5,441 Key Commodities Traded: Vitol is the world’s largest physical oil and gas trader, with crude oil forming the core of its business. It also trades other commodities—including sugar, metals, and grains. Vitol transports over 350 million tons of crude oil annually and controls more than 250 supertankers and other vessels to deliver crude worldwide. On average, it handles over 7 million barrels of oil and petroleum products daily. II. Glencore International 2018 Revenue: $219 billion Founded: Originally established in 1974 as Marc Rich & Co. by Marc Rich Key Executives: Ivan Glasenberg and Tony Hayward Headquarters: Baar, Switzerland; London (oil & gas); Rotterdam (agricultural commodities) Public Listing: Listed on the London Stock Exchange (Ticker: GLEN) Employees: 158,000 Key Commodities Traded: Glencore is among the world’s largest traders of metals, minerals, and oil. Though it owns substantial coal, metal, and oil assets, the bulk of its revenue comes from commodity trading—$219 billion in 2018. Glencore is particularly active in aluminum, copper, zinc, and other materials. III. Trafigura 2018 Revenue: $180.7 billion CEO & Managing Director: Jeremy Weir Founded: 1993 by Claude Dauphin, Eric de Turkheim, and Graham Sharp—spun off from Marc Rich’s corporate group Headquarters: Singapore; Geneva Public Listing: Privately held Employees: 4,300 Key Commodities Traded: Primarily energy-focused, Trafigura also engages in non-ferrous metals trading and shipping operations. IV. Mercuria Energy Group 2018 Revenue: $122 billion CEO & Managing Director: Marco Dunand Founded: 2004 by former Phibro executives Marco Dunand and Daniel Jaeggi Headquarters: Geneva, Switzerland Public Listing: Privately held Employees: 1,000 Key Commodities Traded: Mercuria specializes in energy trading—including crude oil and refined products such as fuel oil, middle distillates, naphtha, and gasoline—as well as electricity, natural gas, coal, and biodiesel.

Vitol CEO Says 14 Million Barrels Daily Leaving Middle East

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