According to the IEA, how long will the global natural gas market remain tight due to the Iran war, and what is the main reason?

The IEA says the global natural gas market will remain tight for two more years due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has delayed a long-anticipated liquefied natural gas (LNG) glut despite new capacity coming online—especially from the US—and pushed back the impact of that expansion 'by at least two years.'

What is the IEA's estimate of the cumulative LNG shortfall between 2026 and 2030, and which project is specifically cited as contributing to it?

The IEA estimates a cumulative shortfall of around 120 billion cubic meters of LNG between 2026 and 2030, an estimate that includes delays to Qatar’s North Field East expansion project.

IEA Says Iran War Will Keep Gas Market Tight for Two More Years

Apr 24, 2026

The IEA warns that Middle East conflicts will delay the natural gas glut by two years, potentially causing a 120 billion cubic meter LNG shortfall through 2030. Supply disruptions in Qatar and reduced capacity growth are forcing importing markets to adopt demand-side measures amid rising prices.

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