According to Goldman Sachs, what is the current level of Persian Gulf oil exports compared to pre-war levels, and what does this imply for global crude prices?

Goldman Sachs states that oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to 'around two-thirds of pre-war levels', reaching 15 million to 16 million barrels a day — still 7 to 8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels but significantly higher than the March trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels a day. This recovery, supported by increased transits through the Strait of Hormuz and adaptive shipping practices like 'dark crossings' and ship-to-ship transfers, is 'limiting the Iran war’s impact on global crude prices'. The analysts conclude that higher dark flows 'could moderate the upside to crude oil prices even if Mideast disruptions last longer'.

How much oil is currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and why is estimating this figure challenging?

Goldman Sachs analysts say oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz alone are 'likely close to US officials’ 8 million to 10 million barrel a day estimates', while traders told Bloomberg this week that 'about 6 million to 8 million barrels a day of crude is transiting the strait'. The estimate is difficult to gauge because 'tankers often turn off their satellite transponders, a practice known as going dark, to avoid detection'. The analysts note this opacity contributes to uncertainty in tracking actual flows, especially since the traders’ figure covers only Hormuz-bound oil and excludes some Saudi exports routed via the Red Sea.

Goldman Says Gulf Oil Exports at Two-Thirds of Pre-War Level

Aug 27, 2026

Goldman Sachs reports Persian Gulf oil exports recovered to 15-16 million barrels daily, reaching two-thirds of pre-war levels. This adaptation limits global crude price spikes despite ongoing Middle East disruptions.

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Goldman Says Gulf Oil Exports at Two-Thirds of Pre-War Level

Goldman Says Gulf Oil Exports at Two-Thirds of Pre-War Level

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