How many more years will gasoline-powered vehicles remain in use? Will global oil demand stay high until 2050?

According to OilPrice.com, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and industry experts forecast that although global oil demand will begin declining before 2030, it will remain elevated for decades to come. Oil companies such as ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco state they will continue extracting crude oil, as global demand for fossil fuels is expected to rise over the next decade—and beyond. In its World Energy Outlook 2023 report, the IEA predicts that global demand for oil and natural gas will peak before 2030, driven by governments’ increased investment in renewable energy capacity and growing consumer adoption of electric vehicles. This projection is based on current government policies worldwide. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated: “The transition to clean energy is happening globally—and it is unstoppable. It is no longer a question of ‘if,’ but ‘how fast’—and the faster, the better for all of us.” The IEA forecasts that after 2030, global coal demand will plummet sharply, while natural gas and oil consumption will remain near peak levels for the next two decades. The agency urges governments and energy companies to halt investments in new oil and gas production activities and instead channel resources into renewables and clean technologies to accelerate the energy transition. Consequently, oil and gas demand is expected to decline substantially over the coming decades. Yet ExxonMobil contends that even with intensified global efforts to accelerate the energy transition, oil and gas are projected to account for over half—approximately 67%—of the world’s energy mix by 2050 (compared to roughly 80% today). Moreover, even if global oil demand begins falling after 2030, daily demand will remain above 100 million barrels. Additionally, ExxonMobil notes that while petroleum demand for gasoline refining will decline over the next 25 years due to the sharp rise in EV adoption, oil consumption in manufacturing, chemical production, and heavy-duty transport will remain persistently high. Even if all new vehicles sold globally are electric by 2035, global oil demand would still hover around 85 million barrels per day. Therefore, investment in new fossil fuel projects must keep pace with global demand—or else the world risks supply shocks that would drive up oil prices and trigger economic crises.

Energy giants say global oil demand will remain high until 2050.

In its World Energy Outlook 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global demand for oil and natural gas will peak in 2030, as governments worldwide invest more in renewable energy capacity and an increasing number of consumers adopt electric vehicles. This outlook is based on current government policies globally. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said: “The transition to clean energy is happening globally—and it is unstoppable. It is no longer a question of ‘if,’ but ‘how fast’—and the faster, the better for all of us.” According to the IEA, coal demand is expected to begin a sharp decline after 2030. Meanwhile, natural gas and oil consumption will remain near peak levels for the next two decades. The agency calls on governments and energy companies worldwide to cease investing in new oil and gas activities and instead prioritize renewables and clean technologies to support an accelerated shift away from fossil fuels. It believes that doing so could lead to a substantial decline in oil and gas demand over the coming decades. However, in August this year, U.S. oil giant ExxonMobil predicted that even with intensified global efforts to accelerate the green transition, oil and gas will still account for over half—about 67%—of the world’s energy mix by 2050. According to IEA data, fossil fuels currently make up roughly 80% of the global energy mix. ExxonMobil’s forecast anticipates that although global oil demand will plateau starting in 2030, it will remain above 100 million barrels per day at least until 2050. While ExxonMobil also acknowledges that petroleum demand for gasoline production will decline over the next 25 years amid surging EV adoption, oil use in manufacturing, chemical production, and heavy-duty transport will remain stubbornly high. ExxonMobil forecasts that even if all new vehicles sold globally are electric by 2035, oil demand will still stand at approximately 85 million barrels per day by 2050. Contrary to the IEA’s recommendation, ExxonMobil asserts that investment in new fossil fuel projects must keep pace with global demand. The oil major warns that failure to do so would trigger supply shocks, pushing up oil prices and precipitating economic crises. UK-based energy giant BP forecasts that oil demand may peak as early as 2025—but will remain elevated globally through 2035. In its Energy Outlook 2024, BP projects that global oil demand will gradually decline from about 100 million barrels per day today to 97.8 million barrels per day by 2035. BP highlights the divide between developed and developing countries: many high-income nations are advancing the green transition and scaling up renewable energy capacity, whereas some low-income countries are undergoing industrialization—a process that will boost fossil fuel demand.

Exxon raises 2050 global emissions forecast, sees slower coal decline

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ExxonMobil raised its 2050 emissions forecast to 30 billion metric tons and projected slower coal decline, warning temperatures could rise 2.5–3°C despite UN climate targets.

reuters

2026-09-17

Exxon raises 2050 global emissions forecast, sees slower coal decline

Exxon raises 2050 global emissions forecast, sees slower coal decline

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