Six major oil giants earned 5 billion RMB per day in the first half of the year, with combined profits totaling $135.6 billion.

Chevron’s performance was equally strong: its net profit for the first half reached $14.77 billion, surging 115% year-on-year. Its Q2 profit hit $12 billion—nearly five times the $2.5 billion recorded in the same period last year. Operating cash flow totaled $25.1 billion, up 82% year-on-year. Among European majors, TotalEnergies posted a first-half adjusted net profit of $11.4 billion, up 47% year-on-year; Shell reported an adjusted net profit of $9.84 billion, up 70.2%; and BP posted the largest growth—up 139% to $8.93 billion. The six companies collectively generated approximately $135.6 billion (about RMB 915.15 billion) in profit—equivalent to roughly $749 million (RMB 5.056 billion) per day. This daily figure exceeds the full-year revenue of many listed companies. II. Three Engines Driving Windfall Profits This windfall is no accident—it results from the simultaneous convergence of three powerful forces. First Engine: Soaring Oil Prices. Ongoing Middle East conflicts continue disrupting global supply chains. Following the outbreak of U.S.-Iran tensions, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—the conduit for nearly 20% of global crude oil transport—was impeded. Saudi Aramco’s output dropped sharply by 25% quarter-on-quarter to 9.46 million barrels of oil equivalent per day—the steepest decline among the six majors. While production fell, prices surged: Q2 Brent crude averaged significantly higher than Q1. Lower output coupled with higher prices delivered outsized gains for oil companies. Second Engine: Production Ramp-Up. The broad-based profit surge reflects a competitive race over asset quality. ExxonMobil’s upstream production hit a 20-year high, with Permian Basin output exceeding 1.8 million barrels per day. Chevron benefited from acquisitions—including Hess—and increased Permian output, achieving a record-high upstream oil and gas production volume; its Q2 output rose 20% year-on-year. High-quality fields are now entering a phase of explosive production growth. Third Engine: Refining Windfalls. Russia’s loss of refining capacity, Middle Eastern supply disruptions, tight feedstock availability at Asian refineries, and globally low inventories have pushed global refining margins to historic highs. Chevron’s refineries set a new record for crude processing capacity at 1.07 million barrels per day, with utilization exceeding 97%. TotalEnergies’ refining and chemicals division posted first-half adjusted operating profit of $3.4 billion—nearly five times higher year-on-year. Shell’s Q2 refining margin rose 41% quarter-on-quarter to $24 per barrel, while its chemicals and products division posted its strongest adjusted earnings since Q3 2021. These refining windfalls contributed substantially to the majors’ incremental profits. With all three engines firing simultaneously, the six giants’ profits soared to unprecedented heights. III. From “Energy Transition Pioneers” Back to “Capital Discipline” During this high-oil-price cycle, strategic priorities among oil majors are undergoing profound shifts. European energy firms, having borne heavier pressure to transition over recent years, previously pledged to cut oil-and-gas investment and scale up into new energy. Reality, however, has intervened: new-energy projects deliver low returns, and energy security concerns have re-emerged. Over the past two years, European firms have clearly pivoted—shifting away from being “energy transition pioneers” back toward “capital discipline.” BP’s newly appointed CEO Meg O’Neill explicitly stated that the company has made significant progress strengthening its balance sheet.

Super oil majors are raking it in! Q2 profits are poised to set a record—but this may mark the peak of the boom.

So far this year, escalating geopolitical crises worldwide have kept international oil prices highly volatile yet persistently elevated—making them one of the primary drivers behind stubbornly high inflation. At the same time, surging oil prices translate directly into fat sales margins for petroleum products, enabling supermajors to reap extraordinary profits. According to media reports, the oil majors’ Q2 profits are expected to reach $50 billion—setting a new historical record. Yet amid global political and economic chaos, this golden run may not last. On one hand, recession risks are mounting, potentially dampening global oil demand; on the other, governments in Europe and North America are either imposing windfall taxes on oil majors or pressuring them to boost output and slash fuel prices. These factors prompted Ahmed Ben Salem, analyst at Oddo BHF, to issue the following forecast: “Profits for oil majors are very likely to peak in Q2 or Q3, followed by a modest decline.” “The looming recession is already calming things down.” Oil barons riding high on elevated oil prices According to media reports, the second-quarter profits of the world’s five largest oil majors—ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP—are projected to surpass those achieved during the 2008 oil price spike, when crude peaked at $147 per barrel—setting a new historical record. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico 3:2:1 crack spread—a rough proxy for crude refining profitability—soared to an average of $48.84 per barrel in Q2, more than doubling year-on-year. Using a similar metric, TotalEnergies’ profit under variable-cost accounting tripled to $145.70 per barrel. Shell expects surging demand for petroleum products to lift its Q2 refining profit by $1 billion. According to Bloomberg-compiled estimates, ExxonMobil’s Q2 revenue is projected to exceed the sum of its previous nine quarters’ revenues. Its downstream business is the largest among all supermajors. The primary reason behind these massive profits lies in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which triggered a sharp global energy price surge—pushing crude oil, refined products, and natural gas prices to record highs.

Shell Sees Strong Oil Trading as Refining Profits Boom

4 days ago

Shell Plc anticipates robust third-quarter earnings driven by volatile energy trading and high refining margins amid Middle East conflict. CEO Wael Sawan noted oil flows have recovered to 80% of prewar levels despite severely depleted market inventories.

bloomberg

2026-07-30

Shell Returns to Chemical Profit After 2-Year Hiatus on Q2 Margins Surge

2026-10-06

Shell Sees Strong Oil Trading as Refining Profits Boom

Shell Sees Strong Oil Trading as Refining Profits Boom

FAQ