Trump claimed that the 'Venezuelan interim government will hand over 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S.'—has Venezuela capitulated?

A senior executive stated: 'We need security and financial guarantees—that is our top priority.' Another questioned: 'If the same people remain in power, who can guarantee things will change?' Trump’s decision to allow Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to temporarily head the government has further heightened industry concerns, given that this regime previously seized foreign assets without providing compensation. According to industry officials, major companies are actively discussing what specific incentives the U.S. government must offer before they would consider returning to Venezuela—such as contract payment guarantees, security assurances, or support for public-private partnerships. An insider at the White House said the administration also hopes the American Petroleum Institute (API) will form a dedicated task force to advise on restoring Venezuela’s oil production. API spokesperson Justin Prundgast responded that the organization is 'closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela and its potential impact on global energy markets,' emphasizing that 'stability and the rule of law' are critical considerations for energy investment. Beyond political factors, Venezuela’s long-neglected oil infrastructure poses another major challenge. In the Orinoco Basin—which holds nearly 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil—drilling sites lie abandoned, leaks go unaddressed, drilling platforms have been looted, and parts have flooded black markets. Its vast underground pipeline network suffers frequent leaks; some pipelines have even been sold as scrap metal by the state-owned oil company PDVSA, while equipment has been severely damaged by fires and explosions. Industry analysis firm Rystad Energy estimates that restoring Venezuela’s daily oil output from its current level of roughly 1 million barrels to its historical peak of 3 million barrels would require at least $183 billion in investment over more than a decade. Even merely sustaining current output would demand approximately $53 billion in upstream and infrastructure investment over the next 15 years. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves—but under Maduro’s 12-year rule, its oil production has plummeted dramatically. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on January 4 that he expects U.S. oil companies to be 'eager to access' Venezuela’s heavy crude, which is vital for refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast. He said: 'Although I haven’t spoken with U.S. oil companies these past few days, we’re very confident they’ll show strong interest. I believe that, given sufficient space, private enterprises will demonstrate enormous willingness to invest.' Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Currently, Venezuela’s remaining oil production relies heavily on Chevron—the only major U.S. oil company still operating there unaffected by U.S. sanctions—and accounts for about 25% of Venezuela’s total output.

New crypto elite gold rush: Coinbase co-founder’s Venezuelan oil field adventure

However, things began shifting starting in 2026. After Maduro was arrested by U.S. authorities and Delcy Rodríguez assumed the role of interim president, U.S.-Venezuelan relations were rapidly restructured. In the oil sector specifically, Venezuela reformed its petroleum laws to allow greater private capital participation through new production-sharing models; meanwhile, the Trump administration placed oil at the core of its Venezuela strategy—simultaneously advancing sanctions adjustments and contractual frameworks while urging U.S. energy firms to invest roughly $100 billion in the country. This has transformed Venezuela’s oil industry into a market undergoing institutional repricing. A country long shunned by global capital due to years of sanctions and economic crisis, once reopened, could yield returns far exceeding those of mature markets. Judging by their subsequent actions, Ehrsam clearly accepted the risk associated with such potential upside. Together with Manuel Iribarren—a Venezuelan who graduated from Stanford—he co-founded Primavera earlier this year. In February, the two traveled to Venezuela to seek investment opportunities. Following meetings with Venezuelan leaders and PDVSA executives, they identified oil and gas—despite their high risk—as their top preference. This reflects a risk-reward structure familiar to venture capitalists and, indeed, the very aspect most appealing to Ehrsam. It is not about hunting for a 10% undervaluation in a stable, transparent market with secure property rights—but rather about bearing a high probability of failure in a territory where most investors dare not tread, in exchange for substantial asset revaluation following institutional change. Yet the waters promising such potentially high returns run exceptionally deep—not everyone is willing to wade in. In fact, Trump urged energy giants including ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and Continental Resources (led by oil billionaire Harold Hamm) to invest $100 billion, but these established players have remained steadfastly inactive. Both ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which had operated extensively in Venezuela during the Chávez era, suffered nationalization of their assets—an unresolved legacy claim that makes them especially sensitive to issues of property rights, arbitration, and whether any future government will honor current contracts. Of course, not all oil majors share this degree of caution. Chevron, which has operated in Venezuela for decades, announced in early September that it plans to invest $7 billion in Venezuelan oil fields over the next five years, aiming to raise its output there to approximately 600,000 barrels per day. Sources familiar with the matter indicated that the terms of Chevron’s newly formed joint venture with PDVSA are expected to be highly favorable—reducing perceived risks for further investment in the country. 'Chaotic land grabs benefit no one.' Alongside established energy firms like Chevron, a new wave of smaller, more risk-tolerant independent oil & gas companies—and fresh capital—has emerged amid this latest opening of Venezuela’s oil sector. Though diverse in background, they share one conspicuous trait: varying degrees of connection to Trump and his political network.

Harold Hamm’s Continental Set to Announce Venezuela Oil Deal

6 days ago

Continental Resources, led by Harold Hamm, plans to announce an investment deal in Venezuela's oil sector at the G20 energy ministers summit. This move supports the Trump administration's efforts to revive the nation's crude production alongside major firms like Chevron and Eni.

Harold Hamm's Continental Resources Signs Deal to Explore Venezuela Oil

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Harold Hamm’s Continental Set to Announce Venezuela Oil Deal

Harold Hamm’s Continental Set to Announce Venezuela Oil Deal

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