JPMorgan warns of a potential global food crisis next year; food inflation is expected to rise from 2.8% to 5%. Will food prices surge significantly? And will this affect the domestic market?

However, the latest data from the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) shows that the global cereal harvest outlook for 2026 remains robust. The Food Price Index declined by 0.3% month-on-month in June and rose 2.2% year-on-year. Although the index rose to its highest level in nearly three years in July, the market as a whole remains closer to 'risk accumulation' rather than having entered a state of full-blown shortage. (4) Water: This is a structural issue. Agriculture fundamentally relies on the combination of 'water + land + fertilizer.' Over-extraction of groundwater, strained irrigation water resources, and extreme high temperatures continuously push up agricultural production costs. In major agricultural countries, droughts or floods in grain-producing regions can have disproportionately large impacts—for example, in India! (5) Waste: A substantial amount of food is produced globally, yet significant losses occur along the supply chain—from farms to storage, transportation, processing, and consumption. Thus, when supply disruptions occur, the importance of logistics, cold-chain infrastructure, and storage capacity rises sharply. While this is not the primary driver, a larger problem lies in producing food that cannot be transported—warfare has severely damaged foundational grain supply chains. II. Which players in financial markets could truly benefit? Not all 'agricultural stocks' will benefit. Investors unable to make nuanced judgments may consider investing directly in ETFs instead. The biggest beneficiaries are likely to be firms across the agricultural commodities and agricultural input产业链 (industrial chain). (1) Agricultural commodity futures: Core commodities include corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar, and tropical-region agricultural products. Notably, after recent disruptions to Black Sea shipping, Chicago wheat futures have already posted clear gains. Nevertheless, global ending wheat stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year are still projected at approximately 273.3 million metric tons—indicating current price surges mainly reflect a repricing of risk premiums. Additionally, livestock sectors such as poultry and swine farming may face large-scale disease outbreaks under hot, humid conditions, pushing up prices. Rising feed costs will also drive up downstream product prices. Meanwhile, the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index has been rising steadily recently, suggesting agricultural commodities have already priced in part of the supply-side risks. (2) Fertilizers: Highly leveraged assets—exposed both to geopolitical developments and to expectations of agricultural output declines. If prices for urea, ammonia, and potash continue rising, resource-based enterprises in this sector may see profit elasticity markedly exceeding that of traditional crop producers. The logic is straightforward: rising grain prices do not necessarily translate into higher farmer profits, but fertilizer price increases—driven simply by tight supply—can rapidly boost profitability at the resource end. Indeed, earlier this year, Trump declared he would not tolerate 'price gouging' by the U.S. fertilizer industry and urged farmers to help suppress global fertilizer prices. (3) Seeds, pesticides, and water-saving irrigation systems: Once extreme weather occurs, markets are likely to strengthen earnings expectations for drought-tolerant seeds, stress-resistant breeding, precision agriculture, and water-saving irrigation technologies—though these represent more 'structural benefits,' unlike the direct impact seen with agricultural commodity futures. At the same time, global grain trading and processing giants like ADM and Bunge may benefit from widening regional price spreads, shifting trade routes, and accelerated inventory turnover. Indeed, analysts recently raised ADM’s 2026 earnings forecast, citing improved processing margins and favorable biofuel policy developments—a dynamic potentially mirrored among A-share agricultural leaders. III. How do agricultural stocks in U.S. and Chinese markets differ? U.S. agricultural stocks essentially represent 'global agricultural industrial chain assets,' whereas A-share agricultural stocks resemble a hybrid of 'policy-driven,' 'cyclical,' and 'conceptual' markets.

After discovering errors in its financial report, ADM—the world’s top agribusiness—temporarily canceled its earnings call!

On Tuesday, ADM announced the cancellation of its scheduled quarterly earnings conference call with investors. This decision followed the company’s discovery of errors in its financial reporting. ADM is one of the world’s largest agricultural production, processing, and manufacturing companies and plays a critical role in the global food supply chain. In January this year, ADM delayed its monthly financial results release due to accounting issues—and subsequently placed its Chief Financial Officer, Vikram Luthar, on administrative leave. ADM’s stock plunged as much as 11.5% intraday and closed down nearly 6% at $52 per share. Year-to-date, ADM’s share price has fallen 28%. large_image?... Accounting errors led to downward revisions of earnings: The root cause of the financial reporting problems lies in serious flaws within the company’s accounting system, resulting in misclassification of sales across different business units. ADM is now cooperating with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to restate its full-year 2023 financial statements, as well as those for Q1 and Q2 of 2024. The company stated it has canceled its originally scheduled third-quarter earnings webcast, set for 9 a.m. Chicago time on Tuesday. It needs additional time to 'work diligently' to 'finalize' its financial statements.

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ADM beats quarterly estimates, lifts annual profit forecast on stronger processing margins

ADM beats quarterly estimates, lifts annual profit forecast on stronger processing margins

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