What is ANZ's revised forecast for Brent crude oil prices, and what key supply disruption is driving this change?

ANZ now forecasts Brent crude to end 2025 at $88 per barrel and remain above $90 per barrel throughout 2026 — a significant upward revision from its earlier $80-per-barrel assumption — driven primarily by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has removed approximately 10 million barrels per day of crude supply from the market relative to its January baseline.

According to ANZ, what are the main factors causing long-term or permanent oil supply loss in the Gulf region?

ANZ states that between 1 million and 2 million barrels per day of output could face permanent or semi-permanent disruption due to reservoir damage, deferred maintenance, and financial challenges — not necessarily from direct physical destruction, but from export disruptions, logistics constraints, and precautionary shut-ins by core Gulf producers.

ANZ raises oil price forecasts on Middle East supply losses

Apr 13, 2026

ANZ raised its Brent crude forecast to $88 by year-end and over $90 in 2026 amid Middle East supply disruptions. Analysts cite geopolitical tensions and export losses removing 10 million barrels per day from the global market.

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ANZ raises oil price forecasts on Middle East supply losses

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