OPEC Monthly Report: September Output Increase Does Not Alter Market Outlook; Global Oil Demand Forecasts for This Year and Next Remain Unchanged

In its latest monthly report, OPEC maintained its global oil demand forecasts unchanged, while the OPEC+ alliance continues to ramp up oil output to global markets—forecasting a supply surplus in the global market next year. On Monday, OPEC’s Monthly Market Report showed global oil demand rising by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and by 1.4 million bpd in 2026—unchanged from previous projections. It also held steady its forecast for demand for OPEC+ crude oil at 42.5 million bpd for this year. The OPEC+ alliance continues implementing its previously announced production-increase plan. OPEC reported that total OPEC crude output rose by 524,000 bpd in September to reach 28.44 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia’s output increasing by 248,000 bpd. Total OPEC+ crude output rose by 630,000 bpd to 43.05 million bpd. Earlier this month, OPEC+ members announced they would raise daily oil production by 137,000 bpd in November—matching the October increase—and thereby alleviating market concerns over a sharp production surge. OPEC has begun phasing out its voluntary production cuts—initially introduced in 2023—totaling approximately 1.65 million bpd.

OPEC+ Seven Nations Agree on Modest September Output Increase; Voluntary Production Cuts Fully Phased Out

OPEC recently issued a statement announcing that seven major oil-producing countries, following an online meeting, have decided to raise their combined daily crude oil output by approximately 188,000 barrels beginning in September. This marks the sixth consecutive month of production increases by these member states. Participating countries include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. With the September output hike taking effect, the phased withdrawal of the voluntary production cut agreement—originally negotiated in 2023 and totaling 1.65 million bpd—is now fully complete. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which had jointly agreed to those quota adjustments, left OPEC earlier this year; the core coordinating group has thus been reduced to the above-mentioned seven nations. Although the plan is set, analysts note that persistent geopolitical risks and heightened threats to energy infrastructure cast uncertainty over whether the scheduled output increases will be fully realized. In another meeting, OPEC expressed concern about potential damage to regional energy assets, noting that repairing such facilities is both costly and time-consuming—thus constraining near-term physical supply. In the longer term, this production increase is seen as having the potential to reshape the oil market balance next year. OPEC currently comprises 21 member countries, but monthly output management in recent years has been led primarily by this core group. Notably, another broader production-cut framework—dating back to 2022 and amounting to roughly 2 million bpd—remains in place for most member countries and will continue through year-end.

OPEC+ Increases Daily Crude Oil Production by 900,000 Barrels in September

19 hours ago

OPEC+ raised daily crude output by 900,000 barrels in September to 39.07 million, still below pre-conflict levels. The agency also cut its 2026 demand growth forecast while expecting higher consumption in 2027.

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OPEC+ Increases Daily Crude Oil Production by 900,000 Barrels in September

OPEC+ Increases Daily Crude Oil Production by 900,000 Barrels in September

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