Why are CF Industries and Nutrien expected to report stronger earnings than Mosaic this quarter?

CF Industries and Nutrien are nitrogen-focused producers that benefit from surging nitrogen fertilizer prices—driven by Middle East natural gas disruptions—which lift their margins; in contrast, Mosaic has no nitrogen production and faces headwinds from higher sulphur and ammonia costs, subdued potash markets, and pressure on phosphate margins.

What is the main driver behind the recent surge in urea prices, and how does it affect U.S. nitrogen producers?

The main driver is disrupted natural gas flows from the Middle East due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which tightens global nitrogen supply since natural gas is a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production in Europe and Asia; this benefits North American producers like CF and Nutrien, whose input costs remain relatively stable while urea barge prices at New Orleans rose over 46% since February 28, lifting their pricing power and margins.

Nitrogen Surge Lifts CF, Nutrien Earnings; Mosaic Faces Headwinds

May 4, 2026

CF Industries and Nutrien are expected to post higher quarterly earnings amid a nitrogen price surge driven by Middle East gas disruptions. Mosaic faces headwinds due to its lack of nitrogen production and subdued potash markets.

reuters

2026-02-18

CF Industries Surpasses Estimates on Continued Rising Prices

2026-03-24

Orica Settles with CF Industries, Plans to Diversify US Ammonium Nitrate Supply

2026-05-04

Nitrogen Surge Lifts CF, Nutrien Earnings; Mosaic Faces Headwinds

2026-05-18

CF Industries: Global Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Supply Tightens, Prices Rise

2026-08-26

CF Industries Announces Blue Point One Breaks Ground for Low-Carbon Ammonia Plant

Nitrogen Surge Lifts CF, Nutrien Earnings; Mosaic Faces Headwinds

FAQ