Europe is preparing for the worst-case scenario: energy supplies may truly run short.

Ongoing Middle Eastern hostilities continue to disrupt global energy markets, and Europe is preparing for the worst-case scenario. Dan Jørgensen, the European Union’s Energy Commissioner, warned the Financial Times in an interview that this energy shock will be "long-term" and that the EU is evaluating "all possible options," including fuel rationing and further drawdowns from strategic reserves. He explicitly stated, "For certain more critical products, we anticipate conditions will deteriorate further over the coming weeks." This represents the most severe public statement issued by an EU official thus far in this crisis. The aviation industry has already begun feeling the pressure, with multiple airlines expressing deep concern over the outlook for jet fuel supply. Soaring energy prices—and growing anxieties about long-term availability—are transmitting stress across the entire European economy. The Strait of Hormuz—among the world’s most vital energy transport corridors—is now nearly closed, while energy infrastructure across the Gulf region continues to suffer repeated strikes, plunging global energy markets into turmoil and sending oil prices sharply higher. Jørgensen characterized the current situation as a "long-term crisis," stating that "energy prices will remain elevated for an extended period." He noted that the EU has not yet entered a "supply security crisis," but Brussels is already developing contingency plans to address the "structural and long-term impacts" of the conflict. "The language and tone we are using now are markedly more serious than at the crisis’s outset," he said: "This is indeed our assessment—that this will be a protracted situation, and countries must ensure their reserves are sufficient."

Jet fuel prices have doubled and supply is running critically low! Amid the energy crisis, SAF unexpectedly gains an unprecedented strategic advantage.

Author Profile Mr. Yu Zhanfu: Chief Aerospace Industry Expert at Zhongda Consulting Group, with over 20 years of extensive experience at leading international management consulting firms specializing in aerospace and advanced manufacturing. His expertise spans the full aerospace value chain—including aircraft components and final assembly manufacturing, passenger and cargo aviation, airport operations, aircraft maintenance, advanced air mobility (AAM/eVTOL), and planning for airport-adjacent economic zones. Previously, he served as a Global Partner at Roland Berger and led its Asia-Pacific Transportation, Travel & Logistics (TTL) practice as well as its Aerospace & Defense (A&D) manufacturing and defense sector. He has also held senior positions at Bain & Company, Oliver Wyman, A.T. Kearney, and McKinsey & Company. His clients include China’s leading airline groups, airport authorities, and aerospace equipment manufacturing conglomerates. Amid today’s volatile data landscape, the story of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is being rewritten—by a regional conflict. Introduction On February 28, 2026, military conflict erupted in the Middle East, immediately imposing severe restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway—just 33 kilometers wide—normally handles approximately 20% of the world’s seaborne oil trade and a substantial volume of liquefied natural gas exports. Its closure triggered a historic shockwave across global energy markets. The first dimension is price. Jet fuel prices surged from roughly USD 87–90 per barrel to over USD 216 per barrel within six weeks—a staggering 144% increase. In Europe, IATA data shows jet fuel now costs USD 1,700 per metric ton—2.5 times the 2025 average. The second dimension is supply. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), publicly warned that Europe holds only about "six weeks' worth" of jet fuel inventory. ACI Europe—the industry association representing major European airports—promptly wrote to the European Commission in urgent terms: if stable navigation through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be restored within three weeks, "systemic jet fuel shortages will become a reality for the EU." These two developments occurring simultaneously have created a situation the industry has never truly confronted before: jet fuel—the most fundamental production input for civil aviation—is now facing both sharp price increases and physical scarcity at the same time. Against this backdrop, a previously long-dismissed alternative fuel—one long regarded as "too expensive and too niche"—is quietly, yet profoundly, reshaping its strategic position across the entire industry landscape. That fuel is Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). 01 What Lies Behind the Jet Fuel Price Surge Why Jet Fuel Is Rising Faster Than Crude Oil To understand the new strategic advantage SAF has gained, we must first grasp the underlying mechanics driving this round of jet fuel price surges. Superficially, this is an energy crisis triggered by regional conflict and disrupted crude oil supplies. Yet deeper analysis reveals that jet fuel prices have risen far more steeply than crude oil itself—driven by deeper structural factors. Brent crude oil rose from USD 85 to USD 103–107 per barrel during the initial phase of the crisis—a roughly 25% increase. Meanwhile, jet fuel prices in Northwest Europe surged by as much as 84%—more than triple the rise in crude oil. This phenomenon of "excess price inflation" stems from two compounding factors. First, refining capacity bottlenecks.

European Commission: No Jet Fuel Shortage in EU Amid Supply Concerns

Apr 14, 2026

The European Commission stated there is no current jet fuel shortage in the EU, though supply issues could occur due to the Iran war, while crude oil supplies to refineries remain stable.

reuters

2026-04-14

European Commission: No Jet Fuel Shortage in EU Amid Supply Concerns

2026-04-17

Europe Warned of Summer Flight Cancellations Amid Jet Fuel Shortage, IATA Says

European Commission: No Jet Fuel Shortage in EU Amid Supply Concerns

FAQ