Why did oil prices rise on Friday despite recent declines, and what specific geopolitical developments drove this movement?

Oil prices rose on Friday due to renewed uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks, specifically Iran’s insistence on retaining its domestic uranium stockpile and proposing a toll system for transit through the Strait of Hormuz—both of which the US deems unacceptable. As stated by US State Secretary Marco Rubio and MUFG Research analyst Lloyd Chan, these conflicting positions eroded earlier optimism, triggering a rebound after three days of declines. The Strait of Hormuz, handling about 20% of global oil supply, remains a critical chokepoint whose potential closure continues to drive price volatility as traders assess risks to energy flows.

What is the projected timeline for normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and who provided this assessment?

According to UAE state-oil company ADNOC head Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber on 21 May, crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal until either Q1 or Q2 2027—even if the conflict ends immediately. ICIS head of oil markets Ajay Parmar reinforced this outlook, stating that even if the Strait reopens in late June, crude, oil products, and petrochemical markets will only regain some form of normality by early 2027, leading to elevated prices for the rest of this year.

Oil rises on US-Iran deal uncertainty; Brent crude up by more than $2/bbl

May 22, 2026

Oil prices surged amid uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz and uranium stockpiles. Analysts warn supply tightness could persist until 2027, impacting global energy and petrochemical markets despite potential OPEC+ production increases.

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